Page 86 - RusRPTDec19

Moodys (USD rating)
Baa3 (S)
02/08/19
Fitch (USD rating)
BBB (N)
09/08/19
S&P
BBB- (S)
23/02/18
Russia’s credit ratings have been improving ​and all three ratings agencies have returned Russia to “investment grade” status (BBB- or more by S&P and Fitch, Baa3 by Moody’s).
Moody’s rates Russia at Baa3​ with stable outlook on both its foreign and local currency debt.
Moody’s last upgraded Russia from Ba1 (Positive) in January 2018 as the economy started to emerge from several years of recession. The lowest rating the country had was B3 in August 2008 following the collapse of the ruble that year and technical default on the GKO state treasury bills. The highest the country has scored was Baa1 in March 2013 as economy bounced back from the 2008 crisis.
Fitch rates Ukraine at BBB-​ on both its foreign and local currency debt with no outlook indicated.
Fitch has been a lot more upbeat on Russia and has consistently ranked if with a treble B rating since 2004 of one sort or another, as it take more account of Russia rock solid fundamentals – the low external debt and large currency reserves. The lowest rating it had was CCC in August 2008 following the currency meltdown. The highest rating was Baa1 in March 2013 thanks to the economic rebound that year.
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) rates both Russia’s foreign debt at BBB-​ with stable outlook and the local debt at BBB.
S&P has also been fairly consistent on Russia’s rating. Its lowest grade was BB+ (negative) awarded in January 2015. The highest was BBB awarded in December 2008.
8.5 ​Fixed income
Russia's credit risk (the level of five-year credit default swaps - CDS, reflects the cost of five-year insurance against Russian default risk on debts) fell to 74 points in the first week of November - the lowest since November 2007. ​The CDS spread for Russia rose sharply in the 2008 crisis after the September collapse of the American investment bank Lehman Brothers and the ensuing global financial crisis: on October 28, 2008, it went over 1000 points. In subsequent years, it declined, but since then has not yet fallen to such levels as it is now. The historical minimum for Russian risk of 36.9 points was recorded on June 5, 2007.
The CBR reports nonresidents' share in OFZs as of the beginning of
November​. The previous value stood at 29.8%, or 33.6% adjusted for the
2015 recapitalisation. In October, 10y OFZ yields declined from 7.0% at the
beginning of the month to 6.4% at the end. According to NSD (National
Settlement Depository), in October, the share of non​residents in OFZs on the
accounts of foreign depositories in NSD increased 2.4pp, to 31.4%, with the
86​ RUSSIA Country Report​ December 2019 ​ ​www.intellinews.com