Page 66 - bne_Magazine_May_2018_print

66 Opinion
bne May 2018
thanks to leadership and policies that were perceived as ego- centric, corrupt and arrogant, garnering just 6.7% of the vote across [Bosnia],” Taylor says.
In neighbouring Serbia, the opposition Democratic Party (DS) also seems to be insufficiently nationalistic. “Although DS
has suffered splits (notably when former President [Boris] Tadic left to form a new party), its main problem is that it is regarded by many Serbs as insufficiently patriotic as regards Kosovo,” Taylor added.
The DS suffered a humiliating defeat in the Belgrade munici- pal elections in March, failing for the first time in its history to pass the 5% threshold to take seats in the city assembly. Mean- while, President Aleksandar Vucic’s SNS scored a convincing victory, helped by the fragmented opposition. It was a similar story in the 2017 presidential election when Vucic took an easy first round victoryas the opposition vote was split between
a couple of leading candidates.
Street politics
Street politics are on the rise in some Balkan countries as opposition parties seek to attract more attention and support, having failed to do so through more orthodox channels.
In the last three years Montenegro has seen not only violent street protests but also a failed coup attempt aimed at assas- sinating Djukanovic during the October 2016 general election. “The attempted coup of October 2016 could stem in part from the hopelessness of opposing Djukanovic by constitutional means, as he has been in power since 1991,” Taylor says.
The protests were staged by the main opposition party, the pro-Russian Democratic Front (DF), which is also alleged to have been involved in the thwarted coup attempt. The DF is
a coalition of parties that was set up with one main goal: to oust Djukanovic and the DPS from power. It uses aggressive rhetoric and openly opposes the country’s membership in Nato and the EU. It is rumoured that the party is financed by Moscow and Russia has several times attempted to influence the Montenegrin prosecution to stop trials against its leaders.
However, the party has scored a series of own goals. Its opposition to membership in Nato and the EU has pushed voters away, and most of its leaders are now on trial either for their involvement in the coup plot or for the clashes in 2015. One of them, Milan Knezevic, has already been sentenced to four months in jail for his participation in the clashes.
In Kosovo, the nationalist Vetevendosje party has also taken an aggressive and sometimes violent stance. The party is well known for letting off smoke bombs in the parliament on several occasions as it sought to block a vote on a border demarcation deal with Montenegro.
Vetevendosje opposes any international involvement in Kosovo’s internal affairs, and is demanding that Pristina take
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a more aggressive position in its negotiations with Serbia.
It is also against the privatisation of state-owned companies.
The campaign against the border deal with Montenegro ultimately failed; despite a last ditch smoke bomb attack on March 21, legislation ratifying the deal was passed the same day as MPs returned to the chamber and carried on with the session. Vetevendosje has managed to present itself as a radical alternative to the parties currently in power, unexpectedly taking second place in the 2017 general election. More recently, however, the party has been riven by internal conflict, making its future uncertain.
“Vetevendosje looked to be a possible breakthrough party, but has now split,” Taylor noted.
But it’s not only opposition parties that resort to violence
in their desperate quest for power. Last April, supporters
of Macedonia’s conservative VMRO-DPMNE party, which had been in office since 2006, stormed the parliament in an attempt to stop the formation of a new government by the rival Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM). VMRO- DPMNE narrowly won the December 2016 snap election,
but failed to form a government as it was unable to secure the support of ethnic Albanian parties, which eventually backed the SDSM. In the aftermath of the attack, which resulted in injuries to MPs including Macedonia’s now prime minister Zoran Zaev, prosecutors have indicted dozens of people, among them a number of VMRO-DPMNE MPs. Now in opposition, VMRO-DPMNE has sought to obstruct the parliament’s work by staging a lengthy boycott.
The winning formula
If an opposition party in SEE wants to break the status quo,
it needs to get a charismatic leader with drive and determina- tion, Taylor says. Another thing that could make people vote for a new party, he believes, would be a serious economic downturn leading to popular dissatisfaction with the govern- ment economic management, or blatant corruption – revela- tions of top level corruption in Macedonia contributed to the eventual ousting of VMRO-DPMNE though in other countries opposition parties have been less successful in capitalising on this theme.
According to Koneska, people would vote for a new party for pragmatic reasons. “People vote for pragmatic reasons – for jobs, for contracts, or small subsidies for farmers – the usual things that people need. If someone else comes in government and offers these things, loyalties will shift,” she says.
However, as long as the ruling parties use the tools at
their disposal to stay on top as long as possible – including controlling the media, appealing to populist ideas and balancing between EU aspirations and rising or traditionally high nationalistic moods – there is little scope for opposition parties to make headway.