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Opposition revived
Tikhanovskaya has hoped to capitalise on the furore to reignite the protest movement and rally international support for the Belarusian opposition cause after it fell off the front pages during the long winter break.
On May 29, the first anniversary of her husband’s arrest that sparked the first round of popular protests in Belarus, Tikhanovskaya called for a Global Picket to show solidarity with Belarus.
Meetings and demonstrations were held in capitals across Europe. Most were relatively small, numbering a few hundred people, but in some capitals such as Vilnius, Riga and Warsaw, several thousand turned out.
It will be hard to restart the mass rallies of last summer in Belarus itself, as the increased repression by Lukashenko has meant the crowd sizes have become small enough for the security forces
to be used effectively against the demonstrators. Last year, with between 100,000 and 200,000 people joining the rallies, the OMON and police were overwhelmed and rendered helpless
by the sheer number of protesters. Now when the crowds number a few hundred or even thousand the police can arrest and beat the demonstrators, raising the risks of participation to
the point where fewer Belarusians are willing to protest.
The follow-on repressions and arrests of journalists and activists also add to the pressure and keep the number of active participants down.
The ground has shifted and the ability of protests to oust Lukashenko has faded. As the new editor-in-chief of Nexta Tadeusz
surplus and the government is getting into serious financial difficulties. EU sanctions on exports of things like potash, and maybe oil products later, will only add to those problems.
Giczan estimates so far Lukashenko is costing the Kremlin $2-3bn a year, but as the country becomes even more isolated following the Ryanair incident that figure could rise to $10bn if the Kremlin
“It was significant that Putin announced no new financial aid for Belarus at the Sochi meeting other than the $500mn loan that had already
been agreed”
Giczan told bne IntelliNews last week in
a podcast, the best chance of getting rid of Lukashenko is to make Russia’s support of Lukashenko more expensive than the Kremlin is willing to pay.
It was significant that Putin announced no new financial aid for Belarus at the Sochi meeting other than the $500mn loan that had already been agreed.
The Belarusian budget has a deficit of some 30% of GDP after years of
is to prevent the economy collapsing and that will cause Putin to think twice about continuing his support, or at least accelerate the process of replacing Lukashenko with someone that is more conducive to both the Kremlin and the crowds.
Despite his stranglehold over the population and his repressive antics, the clock is running out for Lukashenko. As there is no prospect of making amends with the population and the slowly sinking economy, pundits believe that his days are numbered. Ironically Lukashenko’s biggest enemy now is the Kremlin as its policy of rapprochement with the US runs counter to that of Lukashenko’s of hanging on to power
at the Kremlin’s expense by any means available to him.
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen on May 28 warned Lukashenko that "it is time to change course", saying: "No amount of repression, brutality or coercion will bring any legitimacy to your authoritarian regime."
Von der Leyen repeated a promise that the EU has a €3bn package of aid and investment ready and waiting should Lukashenko go and be replaced by
a democratically elected leadership.
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