Page 68 - bne_May 2021_20210601

68 Opinion bne June 2021
After 30 years of development the five countries of Central Asia find themselves of interest to the world's major powers again.
The five Stans back in the Game
Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory in Moscow
For most of the past hundred years, Central Asia was little known to most of the rest of the world. It was closed to outsiders during the over seven decades of Russian occupation and, like most of the other former Soviet states, the countries in the region have often struggled to deal with political and economic freedom since independence. Some are still struggling to define their historic and current national identities while also trying to chart the best course for social and economic development. With few exceptions, the region has been of little interest to investors or multinational corporations. That is now starting to change.
This year, the five states that make up Central Asia will celebrate 30 years of independence. As they do so, the region is again an area of intense interest to major world powers.
Famously the region was the setting of the so-called Great Game in the 19th century, when Britain and Russia competed for dominance from the Caspian in the West to the Tian Shan and Pamir Mountains in the East. There was a minor replay in the 1990s and noughties, although then it was more about access to, and control of, the region’s considerable natural resources, especially oil, gas and minerals. The protagonists were the world’s major energy and mining corporations.
Today we can see Great Game 3.0 across the region. The
www.bne.eu
competitors are Russia, China, the United States and coming up fast in the rear-view mirror, Turkey. Each of these has
a clear agenda in support of their respective strategic objectives. But in this variant of the Great Game, the foreign powers have a local competitor: national governments
are more assertive, better understand the game and are in greater need to deliver on their respective population’s economic expectations. They need more investment and better access to global markets.
This time, the growing interest in the region by the larger economic and political powers presents local leaders with an opportunity: they are better positioned to attract financial
aid, development loans and strategic investment. Some, such as Uzbekistan, have already benefited significantly from
aid and loans and others are gearing up to join that queue. Governments are also better positioned to conclude trade deals and to balance the interests of the great powers with their own agendas. The expanding transport networks, most spurred
off the Chinese BRI system, give real substance to trade deals, whereas in the 1990s and noughties they were largely symbolic.
What is Central Asia?
It comprises five states with a combined population of 77.2mn. Economies have considerable potential to develop, with target GDP, based on purchasing power parity (PPP),