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bne June 2021
Lake Balkhash, seen from space in 1991, is known for its 43 islands. It may soon be known for many more.
hundreds and even thousands of Chinese workers will settle in Kazakhstan."
Mamai continued: “And then no one will be able to drive them out. This is the beginning of expansion. China never gives aid to anyone free of charge. Even in Africa the Chinese run their factories themselves. Do you know that our officials protect the interests of China and are ready to do anything for the sake of these investments? China gives billions. But as a result of this funding, Chinese influence is also set to arrive. They will have economic authority over Kazakhstan, and eventually political [authority].”
Mamai’s point was partly proven in the authorities’ nervousness ahead of the event. Despite granting a permit for the anti-China protest, law enforcement arrested at least 10 individuals in Almaty ahead of it without any explanation, local newspaper Nastoyasheye Vremya reported. The people, who were en route to the rally, were placed in police vans and taken away, the report said.
The actions directed from above, however, give off the air
of a half-measure. Letting Kazakhs protest can be seen as a release valve for frustrations built up amid economic burdens emanating from anti-COVID-19 lockdowns that weigh on the backs of the poverty-stricken citizenry. The sanctioning of
a rally is something like an administrative carrot, while the intimidatory tactics then applied to the event, such as pre- protest arrests, serve as the stick.
The government will not give up on finding ways to support its growing addiction to Chinese investment, a much needed factor in diversifying the economy away from dependence
on oil exports. And, of course, China will not refrain from keeping a close eye on anti-Chinese sentiment in its ex-Soviet neighbour. Striving to keep China happy under such circumstances is a no-brainer.
The protests did in fact invoke a response from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. The ministry’s spokesman, Gao Feng, on April 8 addressed the allegations that China has transferred
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The Lake Balkhash drainage basin (Image: Kmusser, CC-SA-3.0).
polluting production enterprises to Kazakhstan. Gao said the claim went "against the facts" and had "ulterior motives”. He then cited figures on China’s investment in Kazakhstan, stating that it topped $7.83bn as of end-2020 and helped promote local employment and economic development.
The spokesman also added that China-Europe freight trains made nearly 10,000 trips between China and Europe via Kazakh territory last year.
But as the contents of Mamai’s speech demonstrate, the protesters seriously doubt that the economic benefits of China’s investments in Kazakhstan will have a long-term advantage for the Central Asian nation.
Another aspect of the March 27 protests, as suggested by a Jamestown Foundation article published on March 30, could be that the protests were partly fuelled by the threat posed towards Kazakhstan’s Lake Balkhash by Chinese agricultural expansion in Xinjiang. The 16,400 square- kilometre body of water is Central Asia's largest lake and the subject of worry over its potential for becoming "the second Aral Sea" and thereby almost disappearing from the face of the Earth.
Earlier in March, peer-reviewed journal Water published
a study, titled “To save the lake, China would have to drastically reduce how much water it uses”. The study was widely publicised in Kazakhstan and across Kazakh media, partly thanks to a piece by Eurasianet.
China mainly at fault
The study, conducted using multiple simulations, concluded that the lake can only be saved if China dramatically cuts the amount of water it uses in Xinjiang; namely, stops drawing so much water from the Ili river that feeds Lake Balkhash.
The authors of the study pointed to the expansion of farming in China. Irrigated cropland around the Chinese side of the Ili grew by nearly 30% between 1995-2015. The threat this poses to Balkhash far outweighs any other potential danger. Kazakhstan, comparatively, did not see any significant rise in