Page 12 - TURKRptMar20
P. 12
3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators
2015
2016
2017
2018
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
GDP Growth (y/y)
6.1
3.2
7.5
2.8
-2.3
-1.6
0.9
-
-
-
GDP (per capita, $)
10,915
10,817
10,537
9,346
-
-
-
-
-
-
GDP (current, TRYbn)
2,339
2,609
3,111
3,724
922
1,024
1,145
-
-
-
GDP (current prices, $bn)
859
863
852
766
172
175
202
-
-
-
CPI (%, eop, last: Jan)
8.8
8.5
11.9
20.3
19.7
15.7
9.3
11.8
11.8
12.2
Lira-loans (%, y/y)
14.4
12.3
24.9
1.8
3.0
-0.5
4.0
13.9
13.9
17.2
Policy Rate (%, active)
8.8
8.3
12.8
24.1
25.5
23.9
16.3
11.4
11.4
11.0
Population (mn)
78.7
79.8
80.8
82.0
83.2
83.2
83.2
83.2
83.2
-
Unemployment (%, Nov)
10.3
10.9
10.9
11.0
14.1
13.0
13.8
13.3
-
-
CA Balance ($bn)
-32.4
-31.5
-46.6
-28.3
-1.88
-1.29
5.92
-1.07
1.67
-
CA Balance/GDP (%)
-3.8
-3.6
-5.5
-3.7
-1.1
-0.7
2.9
-
-
-
Budget (TRYbn, Jan)
-23.5
-29.9
-47.8
-72.6
-36.16
-42.4
-7.2
-37.9
-123.7
21.5
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.9
-3.9
-4.1
-0.6
-
-
-
USD/TRY (eop)
2.92
3.53
3.79
5.29
5.56
5.79
5.65
5.95
5.95
6.04
source: imf, tuik, treasury, central bank
Erdogan and his finance minister son-in-law release official data in advance of the official publication dates.
Turkey has grown 5% in Q4 and 0.5% in 2019 as a whole, Finance Minister Albayrak said on January 9. There is a 5% growth target, or early official data release, for 2020 set by Erdogan.
Policy rates along with inflation will fall into the single digits in the near future and remain there, according to Erdogan.
End-2019 inflation came in just below the central bank forecast of 12%, just as the finance minister predicted.
End-2020 inflation will come below the official target of 8.5%, Erdogan said in February. The faith of longer term early data releases depend on Erdogan’s ability to keep his post.
12 TURKEY Country Report March 2020 www.intellinews.com