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            3.0​ ​Macro Economy
   Main Macro Indicators
     2015
   2016
   2017
 2018
     Q1
   Q2
   Q3
   Q4
 2019
    Q1
   GDP Growth (y/y)
      6.1
    3.2
    7.5
 2.8
      -2.3
    -1.6
    0.9
    -
 -
     -
 GDP (per capita, $)
  10,915
     10,817
      10,537
      9,346
      -
      -
      -
      -
    -
    -
 GDP (current, TRYbn)
    2,339
 2,609
 3,111
3,724
    922
 1,024
 1,145
 -
-
   -
   GDP (current prices, $bn)
      859
    863
    852
 766
      172
    175
    202
    -
 -
     -
 CPI (%, eop, last: Jan)
  8.8
     8.5
      11.9
      20.3
      19.7
      15.7
      9.3
      11.8
    11.8
    12.2
 Lira-loans (%, y/y)
    14.4
 12.3
 24.9
1.8
    3.0
 -0.5
 4.0
 13.9
13.9
   17.2
 Policy Rate (%, active)
  8.8
     8.3
      12.8
      24.1
      25.5
      23.9
      16.3
      11.4
    11.4
    11.0
 Population (mn)
    78.7
 79.8
 80.8
 82.0
 83.2
 83.2
 83.2
 83.2
83.2
   -
   Unemployment (%, Nov)
      10.3
    10.9
    10.9
    11.0
    14.1
    13.0
    13.8
    13.3
 -
     -
 CA Balance ($bn)
  -32.4
     -31.5
      -46.6
      -28.3
      -1.88
      -1.29
      5.92
      -1.07
    1.67
    -
 CA Balance/GDP (%)
    -3.8
 -3.6
 -5.5
 -3.7
 -1.1
 -0.7
 2.9
 -
-
   -
   Budget (TRYbn, Jan)
      -23.5
    -29.9
    -47.8
    -72.6
    -36.16
    -42.4
    -7.2
    -37.9
 -123.7
     21.5
 Budget Balance/GDP (%)
  -1.0
     -1.1
      -1.5
      -1.9
      -3.9
      -4.1
      -0.6
      -
    -
    -
 USD/TRY (eop)
 2.92
  3.53
   3.79
   5.29
   5.56
   5.79
   5.65
   5.95
 5.95
  6.04
    source: imf, tuik, treasury, central bank
               Erdogan and his finance minister son-in-law release official data in advance of the official publication dates​.
Turkey has grown 5% in Q4 and 0.5% in 2019 as a whole, Finance Minister Albayrak said on January 9. ​There is a 5% growth target, or early official data release, for 2020 set by Erdogan​.
Policy rates along with inflation will fall into the single digits in the near future and remain there, according to Erdogan​.
End-2019 inflation came in just below the central bank forecast of 12%​, just as the finance minister predicted.
End-2020 inflation will come below the official target of 8.5%, Erdogan said in February. The faith of longer term early data releases depend on Erdogan’s ability to keep his post.
12​ TURKEY Country Report​ March 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com
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