Page 12 - TURKRptMar20

3.0​ ​Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators
2015
2016
2017
2018
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1
GDP Growth (y/y)
6.1
3.2
7.5
2.8
-2.3
-1.6
0.9
-
-
-
GDP (per capita, $)
10,915
10,817
10,537
9,346
-
-
-
-
-
-
GDP (current, TRYbn)
2,339
2,609
3,111
3,724
922
1,024
1,145
-
-
-
GDP (current prices, $bn)
859
863
852
766
172
175
202
-
-
-
CPI (%, eop, last: Jan)
8.8
8.5
11.9
20.3
19.7
15.7
9.3
11.8
11.8
12.2
Lira-loans (%, y/y)
14.4
12.3
24.9
1.8
3.0
-0.5
4.0
13.9
13.9
17.2
Policy Rate (%, active)
8.8
8.3
12.8
24.1
25.5
23.9
16.3
11.4
11.4
11.0
Population (mn)
78.7
79.8
80.8
82.0
83.2
83.2
83.2
83.2
83.2
-
Unemployment (%, Nov)
10.3
10.9
10.9
11.0
14.1
13.0
13.8
13.3
-
-
CA Balance ($bn)
-32.4
-31.5
-46.6
-28.3
-1.88
-1.29
5.92
-1.07
1.67
-
CA Balance/GDP (%)
-3.8
-3.6
-5.5
-3.7
-1.1
-0.7
2.9
-
-
-
Budget (TRYbn, Jan)
-23.5
-29.9
-47.8
-72.6
-36.16
-42.4
-7.2
-37.9
-123.7
21.5
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-1.0
-1.1
-1.5
-1.9
-3.9
-4.1
-0.6
-
-
-
USD/TRY (eop)
2.92
3.53
3.79
5.29
5.56
5.79
5.65
5.95
5.95
6.04
source: imf, tuik, treasury, central bank
Erdogan and his finance minister son-in-law release official data in advance of the official publication dates​.
Turkey has grown 5% in Q4 and 0.5% in 2019 as a whole, Finance Minister Albayrak said on January 9. ​There is a 5% growth target, or early official data release, for 2020 set by Erdogan​.
Policy rates along with inflation will fall into the single digits in the near future and remain there, according to Erdogan​.
End-2019 inflation came in just below the central bank forecast of 12%​, just as the finance minister predicted.
End-2020 inflation will come below the official target of 8.5%, Erdogan said in February. The faith of longer term early data releases depend on Erdogan’s ability to keep his post.
12​ TURKEY Country Report​ March 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com