Page 58 - BNE_magazine_05_2019

58 I New Europe in Numbers bne May 2019
Slovakia ILO unemployment index
Slovakia´s unemployment rate at its new minimum in March, the lowest number since 1993
Slovakia´s registered unemployment rate amounted to 5.03% in March, from 5.16% in February, down by 0.13 percentage points (pp) month-to- month and by 0.52pp year-on-year, according to data published by the Labour, Social Affairs and the Family Centre on April 23.
The number of jobseekers immediately able to start work was recorded at 137,962 persons. The rate of unemployment calculated from the total number of jobseekers stood at 6.19%, down by 0.16pp m/m and
by 0.58pp y/y.
Russia's unexpectedly mild inflation gives the CBR room for two rate cuts this year, says VTBC
Russia’s inflation surged at the end of 2018 thanks to the unexpected weakness of the ruble against the dollar and the increase in the VAT by 2pp to 20% that went into effect in January. But analysts and the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) have been surprised at how mild the inflationary gains were. Economists at VTB Capital (VTBC) are now revising their expectations for this year’s inflation down and say there is room for the central bank to cut rates twice this year as a result.
Russia’s inflation reached historic post-Soviet lows in 2018, falling to a low of only 2.2% in January and February 2018, and stayed below the CBR’s target rate of 4% all year, before finally creeping up to 4.3% as 2018 came to a close. Inflation rose to 5% in January and has since climbed to 5.2% as of March.
Bulgaria’s working age population contracts sharply in 2018
Bulgaria’s population continued its decline in 2018, dropping to just over 7mn people — 7,000,039 as of December 31, 2018 — a fall of 49,995 people from a year earlier, data from the National Statistical Institute (NSI) showed.
Bulgaria is forecast to experience one of the world’s sharpest population declines during the rest of this century, according to long-term UN projections. Along with other eastern EU member states, the country is already experiencing skills shortages, due to the natural decline of the population and high emigration, mainly to fellow EU countries.
IMF almost halves Belarus GDP growth forecast for 2019
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its forecasts for economic growth in Belarus in 2019 from 3.1% year-on- year to 1.8% y/y, according to the multinational lender's World Economic Outlook published on April 9.
The World Bank has revised the nation's GDP growth from 2.7% y/y
to 2.2% y/y in 2019, from 2.5% y/y to 2.4% y/y in 2020 as well as from 2.5% y/y to 2.1% y/y in 2021. The World Bank said that the country's economic growth will depend on the results of Minsk's talks with Russia on compensation for the latter’s so-called tax manoeuvre in the oil sector.
Russia monetary policy rate vs inflation CPI
Belarus GDP (y/y)
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