Page 13 - IRANRptMay21

Sanctions drive
Trump’s sanctions drive against Iran kicked in halfway through 2018, a year that brought a GDP contraction of 6%, according to the World Bank. Things worsened in 2019 as the sanctions screw was tightened, with economic output falling 6.8%. The World Bank estimates it declined by 3.7% in 2020.
The World Bank has forecast that Iran will record a GDP expansion this year of 1.5%, followed by 2022 growth of 1.7%. Should Tehran manage to strike a breakthrough deal for the lifting of US sanctions with the Biden administration and should the coronavirus crisis be for the most part overcome in the Islamic Republic in the year ahead, the forecasts would likely be substantially upgraded.
Details of the SCI report on the Q3 growth show the agriculture sector enjoying a 5.5% expansion, industries and mining 3.7% and industries and mining excluding oil 3.1%.
The SCI added, however, that the services sector contracted by 1.8%, in part due to pandemic restrictions.
Meanwhile, construction, a subsector of industries and mining, expanded by 8.5%, the SCI noted.
The SCI report also showed Iran’s gross domestic product contracted by 1.2% y/y during the nine-month period to December 20 (Persian Q1-Q3).
The SCI assessments of the Iranian economy sometimes conflict with those of the CBI.
Iran - Main Macro Indicators
Nominal GDP (USD mn) 144,666.7 (Mar 2020)
Real GDP Growth (%) -6.8 ( Mar 2020)
Nominal GDP Growth (%) 24.943 (Mar 2020)
GDP per Capita (USD) 5,494.057 (2018)
GDP Deflator Growth (%) 34.1 (Mar 2020)
Private Consumption Expenditure (USD mn)
73,357.143 (Mar 2020)
Private Consumption: % of GDP (%) 50.7 (Mar 2020)
Public Consumption Expenditure (USD mn)
22,857.143 (Mar 2020)
Public Consumption: % of GDP (%) 15.8 ( Mar 2020)
13 IRAN Country Report May 2021 www.intellinews.com