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because they were not explicitly allowed by the government.
The logistics of the election have been scrutinised by both local election observers and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) observation mission, placing
in question whether shoo-in regime candidate Kassym-Jomart Tokayev would have won under different circumstances. The opposition's goal of putting pressure on the ruling Nur Otan (Radiant Fatherland) party, led by president of three decades until his resignation earlier this year Nursultan Nazarbayev, has been accomplished.
But the battle seems far from over, something that would have been all too apparent to the opposition-aligned election observers who gathered
at Almaty Arena. The observers, numbering at around 150 activists, aimed to collectively “[publicly] present their protocols” as proof
that Tokayev did not fairly win the election, at least according to what was observed at polling stations monitored by independent observers across the country, opposition activist in-exile Ermek Narymbai said in
a YouTube video.
It is unclear whether the protests will continue, or perhaps even escalate – compared to the country-wide land reform protests of 2016, for example, the rallies so far might not appear to present as much of a threat to the ruling regime.
A campaign calling for real change has, however, gained some momentum on social media, using the hashtags #qaza- qkoktemi (Kazakh spring) and #menoyan- dim (I’ve woken up). A new movement called Wake Up, Qazaqstan has emerged from it, calling for democratic reforms.
Sentiments of the population
What remains to be seen is how Nazarbayev, who still maintains power over the country from the shadows, and his ruling clan will respond to the sentiments of the population, among which economic discontent has been brewing for the past three years. Some Kazakh analysts, however, see the mass
protests against the claimed unfair elections as an indicator of a society that is transforming.
“In essence, society has become different.
It is liberated. Power as a phenomenon
is desacralized,” Kazakh political analyst Aidos Sarym told Radio Azattyk in an interview on June 10. “Ak Orda, [an all- encompassing term for the ruling elite, and the name of the presidential palace], due to a certain ‘magical’ phenomenon, turned into a [perceived] figure of management. New generations of citizens who did not participate in laying the unwritten public contracts that were made in the 1990s [after independence was gained from the former Soviet Union] are entering the political arena. They are not satisfied with these contracts, they are not satisfied with the content. We are now convinced that the party-political system, which was created in the late 1990s to early 2000s, has become completely obsolete.”
“Significant reforms are needed. First of all, we need to change the laws on parties, on elections, on the media, on rallies – so that a normal political culture and a new political reality are created in the country, so that the voice of society can be heard on all levels of government,” Sarym added.
Tokayev's victory is widely believed
by Kazakhs to be paving the way
for a temporary presidency that
will eventually end in Nazarbayev's daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, taking power. Dariga took over Tokayev's previous position of Senate speaker after Nazarbayev stepped down in March.
To some observers, the (non-)transi- tion of power to Tokayev signifies that the president’s post no longer holds the importance it once did. This would make sense in the light of the weakening of the presidential powers in favour of lawmak- ers and the cabinet in March 2017. That was widely interpreted at the time as a failsafe for Nazarbayev who would in that scenario still retain power over the presi- dent, if he were to step down. This would mean that Nazarbayev has decentralised power at the top and decided that the group consensus of the Kazakh elite will be sufficient to keep the country running in the event of his absence.
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