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Opinion
May 19, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 23
other. The tragedy is that neither can offer the other what they would want.
The White House casts a far, far longer shadow over the Kremlin than vice versa. For a Russian govern- ment desperate to be considered a “great power”
– whatever that really means – then it clearly needs to ensure that America, the world’s only superpower at the moment, pays it attention. Part of the reason for its intervention into Syria in 2015 was precisely to force the US to stop trying diplomatically to isolate Moscow. Russia, after all, can at least try and har- ness the power of irritation, to intrude into areas im- portant to the West, to worsen situations, and then offer to fix them, or at least to back away, for a price.
What really matters to Putin is getting Russia acknowledged as “sovereign”, which to his mind means free of foreign interference, including inter- national law, and also “great”, which incidentally includes a sphere of influence encompassing the post-Soviet states apart from the Baltic states.
Whether or not Washington could grant this, it is hard to see any reason why it would. Dodgy Rus- sian businessmen may have invested in Trump’s commercial empire – frankly, that’s where you
go for investors, if you’re something of a serial chancer with an erratic record – but Russia itself is not a serious economic player. Moscow may have hoped that the appointment of an oilman as secretary of state might have led to a drive for hy- drocarbon opportunities, but global prices are too low and options elsewhere too appealing for this to give the Russians any great leverage.
In Syria, the Americans don’t need Moscow’s permission to bomb whom they will. The cruise missile strike, and the Russians relatively mild response to it, is proof enough of that. The real prize is Bashar al-Assad, and although the Rus- sians have little real affection for him, they cannot afford to surrender him without a major conces- sion in return. The only suitable prize would be in Ukraine, whether an acknowledgement of the an- nexation of Crimea, or pressure on Kyiv to accept Moscow’s writ. Neither is conceivable at present.
What else could Moscow offer Washington? About the only thing would be to agree to stop interfering with European politics, but there is no evidence Trump really cares about that. Indeed, no friend of the Euro- pean Union, he may even derive some small satisfac- tion from some of the fallout from Russia’s antics.
Trump is looking for some easy, flashy triumphs, and his willingness to talk to strongmen, from North Korea’s Kim Jong-un through to Philippine’s Rodrigo Duterte reflects not just his own predilections, but also an awareness that they can provide results more quickly and easily than democrats. This was also evi- dent in his initial warm words about Putin, apart from being a way of trolling Clinton during the campaign.
Yet Russia is now a toxic topic for Trump, and more to the point the lack of opportunities for any meaningful deal has become clear. Trump wants
to be seen as the global broker, and Putin wants to portray Russia and Washington in the same frame, hence their shared willingness to work on the op- tics of some kind of rapprochement. Some on both sides still also hold unrealistic hopes of some scope for bargains, such as over Syria. A US diplomat with whom I spoke recently advanced the notion that “maybe Russia can help on North Korea” before even he had to admit “not that there is anything they can do, if the Chinese aren’t on board”.
Ultimately, though, it is hard to see any real mile- age in this relationship. Moscow and Washington will continue to talk, of course. There will be sum- mits and démarches, visits and initiatives. That
is better than a sullen refusal to communicate. But unless and until there is some substantive policy shift in either capital, it will be activity as an alternative to strategy or progress, simply work on the “axis of emptiness”.
Mark Galeotti is a senior researcher at UMV, the Institute of International Relations Prague, a visiting fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations, and the director of Mayak Intelligence. He blogs at In Moscow’s Shadows and tweets as @MarkGaleotti.