Page 14 - IRANRptOct20

Iran’s industry and services sectors shrank by -4.4% and -3.5% y/y, while agriculture saw a weak gain of 0.1% y/y.
Overall, the Iranian economy shrank by 6.9% in the 2019/2020 Persian calendar year, with the contraction at -0.5% excluding the oil products sector.
In that year, the agricultural sector experienced growth of 2.8% while the industry and services sectors shrank 14.7% and 0.7%, respectively.
In its June Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank forecast that Iran’s GDP would expand 2.1% in 2021 after falling 5.3% in 2020.
3.1​ ​Macroeconomic outlook
Iran’s coronavirus-hit GDP to shrink 5.3% in 2020 says World Bank
Iran will likely have to reckon with a GDP contraction of 5.3% in 2020, partly reflecting the effects of its large-scale coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on domestic consumption and the services sectors, according to the June edition of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released on June 8.
In the January edition, released before the shock impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the international financial institution was predicting that Iran would have flat growth at exactly 0.0% following its two years of recession triggered by the reintroduction of US sanctions. Iran can at least look forward to 2.1% of growth next year if the World Bank’s latest forecasting proves correct. In January, it was only predicting 1%.
Looking at the effect of the world downturn on oil producers including Iran—although the US is attempting to force all Iranian oil off world markets—the World Bank observed: “In many oil exporters, growth will be significantly constrained by renewed policy cuts in oil production.”
In a note on how oil prices and consumption fare in global recessions, it added: “Prior to this year’s event, there have been four global recessions over the past 70 years: 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009... In each of these episodes, there was a contraction in real per capita global output and broad-based weakness in multiple indicators of global economic activity.
“During these recessions, oil prices (and other industrial commodity prices) fell.
14​ IRAN Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com