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Iran on course for GDP contraction of 5% in 2020 but expansion of 3.2% in 2021 says IMF
if most of the sanctions remain in place, the IIF said.
Under such a “pessimistic” scenario, Iran would post 1.8% growth next year, while its foreign reserves would gradually fall from around $80bn this year to $46.9bn by end-2023. Approximately 90% of Iran’s official reserves are frozen abroad due to US sanctions.
Iran’s GDP will contract 5% this year but bounce back by 3.2% next year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) updated forecasting given in its ​latest World Economic Outlook​. ​The Islamic Republic’s economy, battered by US sanctions, shrank 6.5% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2018.
Iranian consumer prices in 2019 rose 41% last year and are on course to grow 30.5% this year and 30% in 2021, the IMF said.
Looking at Iran’s current account balance as a percentage of GDP, the Fund gave figures of 1.1%, -0.5% and 0.3% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. Unemployment was expected to grow to 12.2% for 2020 from 10.7% in 2019 and rise to 12.4% in 2021, the IMF added.
4.0​ Real Economy 4.1​ Industrial production
Iran’s SMEs record 17% exports growth in first half of Persian year
The value of products produced by Iranian small and medium sized enterprises grew 16.7% y/y growth in the first six months of the 2020/2021 Persian calendar year (March 20 - September 22), Mehr News Agency reported on October 4.
The depreciation of the Iranian rial (IRR), which hit 300,000 to the USD for the first time ever last week on the unregulated free market, was the principal contributor to the boost in exports, with regional neighbours seeing Iranian products favourable in terms of their cost compared with locally produced items.
Deputy CEO of the Iran Small Industries and Industrial Park Organization (ISIPO), Asghar Masaheb, reportedly referred to the boost caused by the severe depreciation of the rial and said that the growth in exports was due to
15​ IRAN Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com