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bodies. While Ukraine has turned to the west, it has received no formal, or even informal, promises of membership. Indeed, it is widely assumed that it will never be offered membership as Ukrainian membership of Nato is a red line for the Kremlin – although it is more ambivalent about membership of the EU.
Zelenskiy asked the question of both saying “we can’t stay in the waiting room forever,” but again received no response.
The Russian tension has proven a boon for Zelenskiy who mounted a diplomatic campaign and has been touring Europe to drum up support for Ukraine’s plight with some success. Turkey in particular came out strongly for Ukraine and Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan disavowed Russia’s claim on Crimea, causing the Kremlin to ban commercial flights to the country that will cost Turkey billions in lost revenues as punishment.
The Ukrainian president came to power on the promise of ending the conflict in Donbas, but no progress has been made. Indeed, with the Minsk II process stalled and the Kremlin happy with the status quo any progress is very unlikely. However, Zelenskiy has looked like he has made a big effort and with the EU rebuffs and Russia’s intransigence he can effectively pass the blame for the lack of progress onto others. His poll rating has been falling in the last months, but recovered somewhat in March.
As soon as tensions faded the Ministry of Finance managed to get a $1.25bn Eurobond away to high demand that was three times oversubscribed and carried a coupon of under 7%. The timing was perfect and eases some of the pressure on the government that faces a heavy debt redemption schedule this autumn.
But in typical fashion the mood was quickly spoiled after the Prime Minister sacked the widely respected head of the national gas company Naftogaz, who has been a key figure in pushing through the very successful energy sector reforms in the last five years. The decision brought down condemnation of undermining corporate governance and a rebuke from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which is still not happy with Ukraine’s commitment to the reform effort.
6 UKRAINE Country Report May 2021 www.intellinews.com