Page 4 - MEOG Week 17

MEOG Commentary MEOG
Tension rises in the Gulf
Following a new incident in the Persian Gulf and the launch of a military satellite into space, tensions between Iran, the US and Israel are mounting. Could this lead to military conflict between these countries?
GULF
What:
President Trump has warned Iran that its risks military confrontation.
Why:
The most recent incident involves a military satellite launch and IRG boat incursions.
What next:
It is hoped that wise counsels will prevail, but matters change quickly in the Gulf.
WhAt started as muscle flexing in the Persian Gulf has turned into a symbolic demonstra- tion of military power, as tensions between the US and Iran reached a new level last week. On Wednesday, state news agency IRNA declared that the Revolutionary Guard had launched the military satellite “Noor-1,” into space.
The news of the satellite launch came just days after a confrontation in the Persian Gulf – which appears to be under the control of both sides. Last Wednesday, the US Navy declared that several boats belonging to the Iranian Revolu- tionary Guard Corps had repeatedly approached American warships in a “dangerous” and “pro- vocative” manner.
US President Donald trump tweeted on April 22 that he had ordered the US Navy to destroy all Iranian warships if they approached the American ships again: “I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.”
tehran didn’t take long to respond. In his reply, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif advised trump to take care of the coronavirus victims in his own country. The Persian Gulf is 7,000 miles (11,265 kilometers) away from the US; there is, however, no distance between Iran and the Persian Gulf, Zarif said.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reacted promptly to the alleged launch of the Iranian satellite, saying that the launch had defied a UN Security Council resolution.
“Every nation has an obligation to go to the United Nations and evaluate whether this missile launch was consistent with that Security Council resolution,” said Pompeo, referring to UN Secu- rity Council Resolution 2231. “I do not believe that [the launch] is even remotely compatible with it, and I think Iran must be held accountable for what it did,” he added.
According to the 2015 resolution, Iran is “called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology.” It is still under dispute whether the request is mandatory or not.
The US and Iran are continuing their pre- vious course of confrontation, which, despite a few skirmishes, has so far been mostly sym- bolic. The launch of the satellite this week was
no coincidence. Iranian news agency Mehr announced that the launch took place on the birthday of the Revolutionary Guards.
But Iran’s efforts to expand its space pro- gram are not new; Iran has already made several attempts, some of which were unsuccessful. It may be significant that this is the first time that Iran has publicly stated that it wants to put a ‘mil- itary’ satellite into orbit.
That the entire operation was carried out by the Revolutionary Guards could be taken as a clear message to the United States and its allies that the US’ actions have not succeeded in cur- tailing Iran’s military activities.
Since trump’s cancellation of the nuclear agreement in 2018, Iran has been pursuing a growing policy of provocation, said hamidreza Azizi, who works at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. This is shown in the increased military activity in the entire region, especially in the Persian Gulf, and in the expansion of the missile, space and nuclear pro- grams. to what extent the satellite launch brings a new and threatening quality to the Gulf con- frontation is still unclear at this point.
In this time of the coronavirus pandemic, the US and Iran – which have both reported a high number of infections – have been criticised for any interest in a confrontation. The sabre-rat- tling in the Gulf could push both governments to divert attention away from domestic issues. In both tehran and Washington, the heads of state are under criticism, not least because of their handling of the coronavirus outbreak.
Even before President Donald trump’s vow to “shoot down” Iranian speedboats if they harass American ships in international waters, the US Navy was bolstering its ability to call in AC-130 gunships and Apache attack helicopters to defend its presence in the Persian Gulf.
A practice run for the new tactics on April 15 drew 11 gunboats from Iran’s Islamic Revolu- tionary Guard Corps that crossed the bows and sterns of American vessels at close range. And that prompted trump’s “shoot down” tweet.
While attention has turned on the latest con- frontation at sea between Iran and the US -- and on trump’s vow to stop such close encounters -- there’s been little focus on the recent moves by the US Central Command to come better-armed with joint Navy, Air Force and Army systems for spotting targets and transferring data.
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 17 29•April•2020