Page 14 - TURKRptFeb21

3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators
GDP Growth (y/y) GDP(percapita,$)
GDP (current, TRYbn) GDP (current prices, $bn) CPI (%, eop)
Lira-loans (%, y/y, Jan 22)
Policy Rate (%) Population (mn)
2017 2018 Q1-19 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019 Q1-20 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Q1-20
7.5 2.8 -2.3 -1.6 1.0 6.0 0.9 4.5 -9.9 6.7 - - - 10,537 9,346 - - - - 9,127 - - - - - - 3,111 3,724 922 1,023 1,146 1,190 4,280 1,071 1,042 1,419 - - -
Employed (active, mn, Oct)
CA Balance ($bn, Nov)
CA Balance/GDP (%)
Budget (TRYbn, Oct)
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
USD/TRY (eop, Jan 28)
source: imf, tuik, treasury, central bank
27.3 -46.6 -5.5 -48 -1.5 3.79
26.6 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7
766 172 174 202 206 20.3 19.7 15.7 9.3 11.8
754 176 153 197 - - -
11.8 11.9 12.6 11.8 14.6 14.6
13.9 19.1 39.4 46.4 44.1 44.1 41.5
11.4 9.3 7.6 11.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 83.2 ---- - -
26.7 22.5 23.0 25.7 25.8 - - 1.67 -8.97 -12.6 -9.31 -4.40 - -
852
11.9
24.9 1.8 3.0 -0.5 4.0 13.9
12.8 80.8
24.1 25.5 23.9 16.3 11.4 82.0- - - -
-28.3 -1.88
-3.7 -1.1
-73 -36
-1.9 -3.9
5.29 5.56
-1.29 5.92 -1.07
-0.7 2.9 -0.5
-42 -7 -38
-4.1 -0.6 -3.2
0.2 -5.1
-124 -30
-2.9 -2.8
-8.2 -4.7
-80 -31
-7.7 -2.2
- - - -32 -173 - - - -
5.79 5.65 5.95 5.95
6.61 6.85 7.72 7.44 7.44 7.35
Reuters reported on January 13 that the market was expecting a 5.5-6% y/y rise in Turkey’s official GDP in Q4.
Recently, Capital Economics hiked its forecast for Turkey’s official GDP to 1.3%. And @VeFinans forecasts 1.5%.
The IMF hiked its 2020 growth forecast for Turkey to 1.2% from a contraction of 5%.
The Erdogan administration does indeed enjoy a positive surprise in the growth figures; perhaps we could be in for even more than 1.5%.
14 TURKEY Country Report February 2021 www.intellinews.com