Page 14 - TURKRptMay20
P. 14

             3.0​ ​Macro Economy
   Main Macro Indicators
     2015
   2016
   2017
   2018
   Q1
   Q2
   Q3
   Q4
 2019
  Q1
    Q2
   GDP Growth (y/y)
      6.1
    3.2
    7.5
    2.8
    -2.3
    -1.6
    1.0
    6.0
 0.9
   -
     -
 GDP (per capita, $)
  10,915
     10,817
      10,537
      9,346
      9,127
      9,127
      9,127
      9,127
    9,127
    -
  -
 GDP (current, TRYbn)
    2,339
 2,609
 3,111
 3,724
 922
 1,023
 1,146
 1,190
4,280
 -
   -
   GDP (current prices, $bn)
      859
    863
    852
    766
    172
    174
    202
    206
 754
   -
     -
 CPI (%, eop)
  8.8
     8.5
      11.9
      20.3
      19.7
      15.7
      9.3
      11.8
    11.8
    11.9
  -
 Lira-loans (%, y/y)
    14.4
 12.3
 24.9
 1.8
 3.0
 -0.5
 4.0
 13.9
13.9
 19.1
   23.8
 Policy Rate (%, active)
  8.8
     8.3
      12.8
      24.1
      25.5
      23.9
      16.3
      11.4
    11.4
    9.3
  9.0
 Population (mn)
    78.7
 79.8
 80.8
 82.0
 83.2
 83.2
 83.2
 83.2
83.2
 -
   -
   Unemployment (%)
      10.3
    10.9
    10.9
    11.0
    14.1
    13.0
    13.8
    13.7
 13.7
   13.8
     -
 CA Balance ($bn, Feb)
  -32.4
     -31.5
      -46.6
      -28.3
      -1.88
      -1.29
      5.92
      -1.07
    1.67
    -2.84
  -
 CA Balance/GDP (%)
    -3.8
 -3.6
 -5.5
 -3.7
 -1.1
 -0.7
 2.9
 -0.5
0.2
 -
   -
   Budget (TRYbn)
      -23.5
    -29.9
    -47.8
    -72.6
    -36.16
    -42.4
    -7.2
    -37.9
 -123.7
   -29.6
     -
 Budget Balance/GDP (%)
  -1.0
     -1.1
      -1.5
      -1.9
      -3.9
      -4.1
      -0.6
      -3.2
    -2.9
    -
  -
 USD/TRY (eop)
 2.92
  3.53
   3.79
   5.29
   5.56
   5.79
   5.65
   5.95
 5.95
  6.61
 6.97
    source: imf, tuik, treasury, central bank
               The collapse in oil prices since March provided Ankara with a new story to legitimise the official inflation and current account data.
Some stories to explain why Turkey’s GDP growth has not collapsed in the official data will also no doubt be planted, but the only buyers will be some mainstream analysts, not investors.
i.e. The hygiene and personal health products market in Turkey has seen a boom in demand and is projected to triple in growth by year-end, Daily Sabah reported on April 3.
Turkey looks set to experience an economic contraction of 5% this year, following on from its recession-ailed 2019, according to the latest World Economic Outlook forecasting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)—​released​ on April 14.
The IMF expects Turkey’s unemployment rate to climb to 17.2% this year.
The Fund also predicted Turkish average consumer price inflation of 12.0% for this year. Last year, the rate was officially 15.2%.
For Turkey’s current account balance in 2020, the IMF gave a figure of 0.4% of GDP .
In the worst case, the global economy would shrink by around 11% rather than 3% this year, it said.
14​ TURKEY Country Report​ May 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com
   12   13   14   15   16