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bne November 2019 Cover story I 27
a personal failure of the prime minister and accused him of holding the country hostage.
The opposition suspended their ongoing protests – several of which descended into violence – saying they would hold off until after the EU’s decision. There are now fears of fresh instability and
a renewed push to force Rama out following the summit.
In a comment on the situation, rating agency Standard & Poor’s warned
that the EU’s failure to set a date for talks to start could weigh on reform momentum in both countries, and also raised the issue of the impact of political instability on their economies. “Accession talks typically act as a reform anchor with candidate countries implementing structural changes that could otherwise be difficult to deliver for domestic political reasons,” S&P said.
On the upcoming snap election in North Macedonia, the rating agency wrote: “We currently don't expect this development to influence short-term economic dynamics, although risks remain, as highlighted by the past effect of political uncertainty on growth following the inconclusive general election at the end of 2016.”
Unhappiness with the outcome of the EU summit wasn’t limited to domestic political actors in the two candidate countries.
In a statement issued after the meeting, Tusk stressed that an "overwhelming majority” of EU members wanted to open accession talks, and appealed
to Skopje and Tirana not to give up: “You did your share and we didn’t. But I have absolutely no doubt that you will become full members of the European Union”.
“#EU leaders failed to live up to their commitment to open #accession negotiations with #NorthMacedonia and #Albania at #EUCO. This is
a matter of extreme disappointment. #EU #MS now need to clarify how serious their commitment is to the #WesternBalkans’ #EU integration,” wrote EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn on Twitter.
The fear – as stressed in the European Commission’s 2018 strategy paper with which it sought to revitalise the
powers; Russia, China and Turkey all have an interest in the region.
This was highlighted by OSW’s Szpala. “Blocking the accession talks also entails raising the question as to how the EU wants to influence neighbouring countries and encourage them to conduct reforms, if this does not off the guarantee of enhancing integration,” she wrote. “The lack of a positive decision will likely be used by such countries as Russia, China and Turkey, which have been making efforts to strengthen their position in the Balkans at the expense of the EU.”
On top of this is that whereas before progress towards accession depended on steps the candidate countries could take – even if they were politically difficult steps – Macron’s decision to hold out for internal EU reforms before further enlargement takes the decision
“The EU’s failure to set a date for talks to start could weigh on reform momentum in both countries”
accession process – is that discouraging messages from Brussels will remove the incentive for candidate countries from the Western Balkans to make reforms, and push them into the arms of rival
out of the hands of the candidate countries, leaving them powerless observers of steps taken – or not taken – in Brussels.
Firebombs at a protest in Tirana earlier this year. The country's failure to progress towards EU accession could see a return to political instability.
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