Page 45 - BNE_magazine_11_2019

bne November 2019 Eurasia I 45
Research
Earthquakes and regional power politics The Pamir mountains are not stable and are prone to earthquakes, but the Soviet engineers got round that by building
a constriction that is essentially a shell filled with sand that corrects and fills up any gaps created in an earthquake.
This solution was used to build the Nurek hydro-plant downstream of Rogun, constructed during the time
of the Soviet Union in 1961-1978. It
has worked very well. These dams are known as impervious core embankment dams. Correctly layering rock and other materials not only makes the stability
of the structure less susceptible to displacements caused by seismic activity, it also makes the pores that can be created by seismic events as a result of the movement of the structure self-filling. As the name suggests, only the core must be impervious, being made of clay. The rest of the dam consists of rock of various types, all drawn from local sources.
In half a century of operation, Nurek has not suffered a single seismic event that would jeopardise the dam or indicate
a threat to the stability of its structure. There are additional complications
at Rogun – such as the presence of geological faults and a salt wedge right at the foundation of the dam – that call for additional solutions, according to VTBC.
Beyond the ability to control the
river flows throughout the year more rationally, greater control of the amount of water also has important regional political implications.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the “hydrocarbon” countries of the region decided to charge higher prices for the winter energy they produced from fossil fuels, pointing to global price levels. That led the “hydro” countries, such as Tajikistan, to shift and rely more on their water resources in their energy regimes. But as they discharged more water in the winter, to avoid expensive imports, they were quickly embroiled in rows with counties such as Uzbekistan, the cotton crop of which, worth billions of dollars a year in exports, is affected by the lack of water in the summer.
“It took years for the countries to regain at least some ability to co-operate in this exchange, trading summer water for winter energy,” says Grishin.
Rogun means that Tajikistan will have a vast reserve of water that it can tap and use in energy negotiations with its neighbours, improving its position politically in the region.
Exports remains key
Exports of excess power generated
by Rogun are the key to the whole puzzle and have already begun. the cash-strapped government has already diverted power from the domestic market to exports, causing power shortages at home earlier this year.
Power exports over the first half of this year were 1,257mn kWh, up by exactly a third year on year. Exports accounted for about a tenth of the 10.1bn kWh that Tajik generated during this period. That was only up 6.6% y/y, so the
is little different to the domestic tariffs, Uzbekistan pays in dollars whereas the domestic market earns the government local currency, so the government
is keen to export to bolster its hard currency reserves.
The Afghan export channel is less well developed and has suffered setbacks. One of the towers on the export transmission line to Kunduz was blown up at the end of 2018, reportedly by the Taliban, but it was restored in May 2019. And in October there were reports of another attack on
a tower. The instability in Afghanistan makes it an uncertain transit route to the bigger and richer market in Pakistan. Still, the Afghan exports are more lucrative for Tajikistan, as the prices are twice as high as those in Uzbekistan at $0.04/kWh, minus the transit fees Dushanbe has
to pay Tashkent.
It took some time to build a bypass around Turkmenistan from Tajikistan via Uzbekistan to Afghanistan. The Turkmen
“The Pamir mountains are not stable and are prone to earthquakes, but the Soviet engineers got round that by building a constriction that
is essentially a shell filled with sand”
government was sacrificing domestic supply to make a little extra money. All in all, Tajikistan has signed off on deals to export 3.2bn kWh this year, which is a third more than last year.
And exports will continue to rise. Since the two turbines came online at Rogun, Tajikistan has already surpassed its Soviet era record generation production of 18.6bn kWh set in 1988. That was with the 19.7bn kWh it produced in 2018.
Uzbekistan is a major customer and demand from the Uzbeks is highest in the second half of the year, rising from around 110-120mn kWh per month in April to circa 400mn kWh in the autumn.
Although the price Tashkent pays in the low season rises from only $0.02/kWh to $0.025.kWh in the high season, which
are not co-operating in the development of a regional grid. In general, the advent of the new Uzbek administration under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has led
to a rapid improvement in relations between Tashkent and Dushanbe that is being manifested in new joint infrastructure projects.
However, the project still has its work cut out. The construction of the dam needs to be completed and more turbines installed. There has been a lot of investment into the Central Asian Power System (CAPS) but more 500- kWh loops need to be built so countries can better share their excess production. And a power delivery system traversing Uzbekistan and Afghanistan to Pakistan needs to be built. All this will take years to complete and it’s still not clear where the money will come from.
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