Page 58 - BNE_magazine_11_2019

58 I New Europe in Numbers bne November 2019
Turkey inflation: Annual CPI vs PPI
Turkey enjoys single-digit inflation for first time in two years
Kyrgyzstan GDP (y/y)
Strong base effects meant Turkey’s official consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell sharply to 9.26% in September after slowing to 15.01% in August. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) confirmed the much anticipated big decrease, which took the rate into the single-digit figures for the first time in two years, in an October 3 announcement. It led to immediate and widespread predictions that the central bank will follow through with more rate cuts.
Kyrgyz economy expands 6.1% y/y in Jan-Sep
Kyrgyzstan's economy expanded by 6.1% y/y in January-September, up from the 1.2% y/y growth recorded in the same period last year, according to data released by the country's National Statistical Committee.
The expansion was mainly achieved thanks to rising output at Kyrgyzstan’s flagship Kumtor gold mine. Kumtor produced 151,065 ounces of gold in the second quarter of 2019, up from 83,802 ounces produced in the same period last year.
Growth already past its peak after Western Balkans’ brief blossoming
Across the six EU-aspiring countries, the development bank forecasts growth will slow from a high of 3.9% in 2018 to 3.2% in 2019. With the exceptions of Kosovo and North Macedonia, growth will slow down in countries across the region, with the slowest growth — 2.9% — forecast for Albania.
IMF inches Russian GDP forecast down to 1.1% in 2019
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut Russia’s growth forecast for the third time this year to 1.1% from the previous 1.6%, the fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook update for October 2019. The GDP growth is expected to recover to 1.9% in 2020.
Previous the IMF had forecast Russia’s GDP growth at 1.8% at the start of the year but then cut the forecast to 1.6% growth in April.
Contribution of factors to real GDP growth, percentage points
Russia GDP, y/y%
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