Page 7 - MEOG Week 28

MEOG PiPeLines MEOG
a demand basis through the existing pipelines. one of the advantages of the new pipeline for turkey is the constant ow of gas over its terri- tory on its way to europe that will improve tur- key’s energy security.
e turkish gas market su ered a setback last year, hurt by economic turmoil in the country, reports VtBC. “As a result, turkish gas con- sumption fell 8.4% y/y to 49.3bcm in 2018, with Gazprom’s gas exports to the country falling 17% y/yto24bcm,”VtBCreports.
“ePPen Consulting, a turkish consulting rm, expects gas demand in turkey to uctuate in a 48-50bcm range in 2019-2023. In the longer term, though, gas demand might be potentially supported by the increased competitiveness of turkish industry due to lira depreciation, with woodMac forecasting more than 60bcm gas demand by 2035.
In this case, if both direct pipelines to turkey (Blue Stream and turkish Stream) were fully uti- lised, Gazprom might be able to satisfy up to 53% of turkish gas demand.”
while gas prices in europe have shrunk to a multi-year low, the demand remains strong.
Last year Gazprom exported almost 200bcm to europe, and has kept its forecast for this year at 198-201bcm and $230/kcm average price.
At the same time Ukraine’s national gas com- pany told bne Intellinews that it expects to be cut o from Russian gas completely on January 1, 2020 and is also building up reserves. If Rus- sia breaks its supply and transit agreement with Ukraine at the end of this year then that could lead to shortages in europe, hence the build-up of reserves going on now.
european gas demand grew 1.1% y/y (or +3.1bcm) in the rst half of this year, supported by increased demand in power generation (+13% y/y or 10.7bcm), VtBC reports.
“nevertheless, Gazprom’s export volumes were pressured by the increased LnG export to europe, which are up 93.7% y/y, or 29.9bcm. in 1H19, falling 5.9% y/y to 95.3bcm over the period,” VtBC said.
Analysts are less optimistic about Gazprom’s exports to europe and are forecasting 191bcm export and $223/kcm average price. However, if Gazprom does cut Ukraine o then exports to europe could fall signi cantly.™
Iran denies report it tried to grab British oil tanker
iran
IRAn’S Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) denied a report that they had stopped a British oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, AFP reported citing Fars news Agency on July 11.
According to a previous report by Cnn, the IRGC navy unit ordered the British Heritage oil tanker, which was in the Strait of Hormuz, to change its direction towards Iranian waters. e Iranian boats departed a er British warship HMS Montrose warned them o , all the while being videoed by the US in the distance.
Following the report by the US, Iranian For- eign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the UK’s claim that Iran tried to stop its ship was “worthless”, con rming the statement that the IRGC made on its social media channel earlier.
“Apparently the British tanker has passed. what they have said themselves and the claims that have been made are for creating tension and these claims have no value,” Zarif said.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani previ- ously warned Britain of “consequences” on July 10, over the detention of the Iranian super- tanker Grace I by Royal Marines o the coast of Gibraltar.
on July 8, Iran’s defence Minister Brigadier
General Amir Hatami said: “ e action runs counter to international regulations and is a kind of maritime piracy,” while in Bandar Abbas.
tanker release
this week, British foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt said that the UK would ensure that Grace I would be released as long as tehran provided guarantees that the vessel would not transport oil to Syria.
Reports by the BBC suggested that the tank- er’s cargo of crude had been o oaded, but this has so far not been substantiated.
Hunt said that he had spoken with his Iranian counterpart, with both parties saying they were keen to ease tensions.™
Week 28 16•July•2019 w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m P7