Page 17 - RusRPTMay20

workers from Eastern and Southern Europe, who are not showing up this year. Farmers in France, Spain and Italy complain that fruits and vegetables will be left to rot if the situation does not change, according to Bloomberg. Strawberry and asparagus growers are already unable to pick their crops, while everything from salad greens and tomatoes, to onions and peas could be next in line.
Russian agricultural production has surged by 20% over the past six years. The country has managed to capture more than half of the global wheat market in recent years, becoming along with Ukraine the world’s biggest exporter of grain, thanks to bumper harvests and attractive pricing. Since the early 2000s, this share of the global wheat market has quadrupled.
Russia has a history of disrupting the wheat market through restrictions or taxes, but last imposed an outright ban in 2010 after drought destroyed crops. The move caused wheat futures to rally and some researchers saw it as as an indirect contributor to the Arab Spring uprisings.
Banning Russian exports could benefit rival suppliers such as the EU and the U.S., said Amy Reynolds, a senior economist at the International Grains Council in London. Crops office FranceAgriMer this month raised its outlook for French wheat exports outside the bloc to a record for the season that ends in June.
Egypt is one country that may purchase more from the EU. The top wheat buyer is taking an unusual step of importing a large amount of wheat during its own harvest to ensure it has enough to feed its population, many of whom live in poverty. The North African nation is heavily reliant on Black Sea grain, but has already boosted French purchases this season due to more competitive prices.
2.8 ​ ​Russia’s budget under corona-pressure, but Kremlin reluctant to spend its reserves
The Kremlin has so far been very reluctant to spend any money on economic stimulation. The first version of the economic support and stimulation plans were limited to a mere 1.3% of GDP of spending whereas other countries have pledged anywhere between 5% and 20% of GDP spending to reboot their economies.
Since the start of April Putin has been on telly several times and each time announced more measures that take the spend just over 6% as of the end of April, but some commentators, like former Finance Minister and Audit Chamber head Alexei Kudrin, have called for up to half the NWF to be spent this year and more.
The National Wealth Fund has been wholly tasked to cover the budget deficit caused by the collapse of the oil price. For the first time since Putin took office the government is expecting the current account to go into deficit in the second half of this year.
The federal treasury has been in surplus in the first quarter, but income is falling fast. Rather than commit to a big hand out of cash now, the Russian government is taking its time to properly assess the damage before bringing out its wallet. The Kremlin clearly thinks things are going to get worse before they get better.
Taxes have not be forgiven but merely postponed. The government will opt for partial compensation of wages and salaries at the level of the maximum unemployment benefit. But it will only do so after May 18. The regional authorities will “exchange” the exemption from lease payments and some
17​ RUSSIA Country Report​ May 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com