Page 58 - RusRPTMay20

The CBR expects Russia to record a current account deficit this year for the first time in modern history​. This means that Russia will effectively be spending more on imports than it receives from exports, a shocking statistic fora large-scale commodity exporter. That Russia’s current account is predicted to turn negative evidences just how extreme the current decline in oil prices is.
Russia’s balance of payments yet to show capital flight in 1Q20. ​The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) data, released on April 10, showed an expected decline in double surpluses: current account surplus fell 35.4% y/y to $21.7bn, while foreign trade surplus fell 32% y/y to $32bn. Both indicators were driven by a significant change in the price of oil – Urals crude price was down 21.5% y/y in January-March period, according to ​BSC Global Markets​ chief economist Vladimir Tikhomirov.
Russia key trade results $bn
Indicators
January - February 2020 (estimate)
January - February 2019
Current account
16
22.6
Trade balance
22.8
30.9
Private Sector Financial Balance
12.7
17.8
Change in reserve assets *
14.9
6.1
source: CBR
58​ RUSSIA Country Report​ May 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com