Page 53 - BNE_magazine_10_2020

bne October 2020 Eurasia I 53
Ivanishvili benefits,” wrote analyst Dmitry Moniava in a commentary on RFE/RL. “Everyone says this: Saakashvili’s friends, his enemies, and neutral commentators. But he is like a boxer who has been defeated many times who still wants to show that he is on top, racing back to the
Rather slim
The chance of Saakashvili getting a chance to correct his errors are broadly seen as rather slim, however.
“The prospect of Mikheil Saakashvili’s prime ministership looks more uncertain than the prospects of other candidates,”
Shaky pact
The move is likely to put an end to the development of the fragile and shaky opposition coalition pact sketched out in August, which agreed to appoint joint majoritarian candidates in Tbilisi. The coalition has appointed some candidates that are vocally against Saakashvili, such as Irakli Okruashvili. But the future of the coalition already looked doomed and it remaining in limbo would not be
a major loss for the opposition.
The UNM might see itself abandoned after the election by more moderate opposition parties if it performs poorly in the election. It would not be able to lead negotiations for the formation of
a new ruling coalition given the political diversity of the opposition parties.
The latest polls show that the UNM and its coalition of small parties, Strength
is in Unity – United Opposition, will not be able to achieve a parliamentary majority. It seems that they would need the support of the other opposition parties, among which European Georgia is the biggest and the most natural ally of UNM.
UNM ranked second with potential voters, with 16%, in an International Republican Institute poll conducted between June 4 and July 2. Georgian Dream led the survey with 33%.
On 14 August, David Bakradze, one
of the leaders of European Georgia, said it would be unacceptable for their
“I will be the prime minister not for a full term, but for a maximum of 2 years,” Saakashvili said”
past and dreaming of a rematch in the same ring, with the same fans.”
Grigol Vashadze, who was personally appointed by Saakashvili as his successor as UNM chairman and as
the party’s presidential candidate in 2018, announced the plan to put the former president on the ballot at a press conference in Tbilisi on September 7.
In the 2018 presidential poll, Vashadze came close to defeating the candidate backed by GD, Salome Zourabichvili. However, Vashadze is a less controversial politician than Saakashvili – a wanted man in Georgia but who in May was appointed head of Ukraine’s National Reforms Council having served for a time as governor of Odessa – and given that the runoff vote in the contest for president is a head to head affair, voters opposed to Zourabichvili and GD were left with no choice but to support him.
“I will be the prime minister not for a full term, but for a maximum of 2 years,” Saakashvili said in a video statement.
“These two years will be enough to pull the country out of the swamp and move forward very quickly. I am sure of that," Saakashvili said.
Saakashvili apologised once more for the mistakes made in the past and asked for a chance to correct them.
"I want to sincerely apologise to everyone for the mistakes, but it is more important to correct the mistakes. I want to have the chance to correct the mistakes," Saakashvili said.
OC Media wrote in a comment on the former president’s intentions.
Saakashvili serves as the honorary president of UNM, but remains a fugitive from Georgian justice. GD officials
are making jokes about the situation, basically welcoming Saakashvili into jail. But things would change in the event of UNM causing a major upset in the general election. Given that GD is riding a timely new wave of population thanks to the government’s well received management of Georgia’s coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, however, that is difficult to imagine as things stand.
Saakashvili’s announced return generates uncertain political benefits for the opposition as a whole: the move may generate momentum among UNM’s supporters and may strengthen UNM’s position as the driving opposition force, but it also increases the radical profile of the
“These two years will be enough to pull the country out of the swamp and move forward very quickly”
party. A recent poll showed UNM with the highest negative rating (29%) among the political parties, followed by GD (25%).
The UNM is thus seemingly aiming at forming, or forcing, a post-electoral coali- tion where it would play a dominant role since the prospect of a pre-electoral agree- ment with other opposition parties has just been undermined by its nomination
of Saakashvili as its candidate for PM.
party to enter any coalition government with Saakashvili or former ministers Ivane (Vano) Merabishvili and Zurab Adeishvili.
Strength is in Unity – United Opposition was conceived as a united front of the opposition, but it has suffered internal disagreements. The New Georgia and Law and Justice parties recently made for the exit.
www.bne.eu