Page 18 - UKRRptJan22

3.2 Macro outlook
The National Bank of Ukraine has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2021 to 3%. “This forecast is slightly lower than previously predicted due to several reasons. Poor economic results of the first half of the year, which have already been recorded. Quarantine restrictions. The high cost of energy, and the shortage of goods and components worldwide due to the imposition of quarantine restrictions”, said Vladimir Lepushinsky of the NBU on Telegram.
Ukraine's GDP growth forecast was revised. GDP growth in 2021 will be 3.4% instead of the 4.1% that was expected in April. Economic growth in 2022 is projected at 3.6% instead of 3.7%, reported nv.ua. According to the Ministry of Economics, the revision of indicators is mainly due to the slowdown in investment growth and challenges and threats of post-pandemic development. By the end of 2021, experts expect inflation at 10.6%, by the end of 2022 - 6.5%. In addition, experts predict unemployment to be 9.4% in 2021 and 9% in 2022 and the hryvnia exchange rate by the end of 2021 will be UAH 27.5 / $1.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Ukraine’s industrial output slowed to 0.4% y/y growth in November after increasing 1.4% y/y in October, the State Statistics Service reported on December 22. Seasonally adjusted output declined 0.5% m/m in November.
18 UKRAINE Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com