Page 18 - RusRPTJun19

house.
On the 18th week of this year the shopping index was 5% compared to the previous year.
“The main reason was preparation for the dacha season. During the 19th week shopping index in Moscow decreased by 3.6%, which was due to the fact many people stayed at their dachas or went abroad during the holiday.
Consumption has been held back by incomes that have been stagnant for five years. The Ministry of Economy was predicting a 1% growth in real incomes for this year, but after GDP growth came in at only 0.8% of GDP in the first quarter – well below consensus – the ministry warned at even that prediction is in danger and 2019 will probably been another year of stagnation for incomes.
2.12 Russian business and consumer confidence
The Rosstat consumer confidence index grew 1 percentage point on the quarter to minus 16% in January–March, the Federal State Statistics Service said in a statement on Thursday. The share of people who think that recent economic changes are positive fell to 11% in January–March from 12% in October–December 2018, while the share of negative estimates went down to 45% from 46%, and the share of neutral estimates rose to 43% from 42%. The number of people who expect economic improvement in the next 12 months rose to 11% from 10%, while the share of people that see negative dynamics in the Russian economy decreased to 23% from 26%.
Consumer confidence measures fell to historic lows -- 62 points per Nielsen ratings -- in 1Q this year due to rising taxes, falling real wages, and uncertainty hanging over the economy. This is terrible news for the Kremlin, though not surprising. That almost 80% of respondents said they felt Russia was already in a recession amps up the pressure on May decree spending and
18 RUSSIA Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com