Page 28 - RusRPTJun19

consumers had to absorb the pension age increase and higher taxes, as well as much more unpredictable warmer winters that lower utilities output, and slower growth of state military orders.
Tikhomirov warns that as state investment has de-facto remained the main driver of economic growth, the national projects could fail to accelerate GDP this year as there are no signs that the large projects are close to being launched.
At the same time, underperforming economic growth in the first quarter increases the likelihood and the possible scope of the monetary easing expected to be launched by the CBR already starting with the second quarter of 2019.
Key macroeconomic indicators "
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2M19 2019e 2020e
GDP 0.7 -2.5 -0.2 1.6 2.3 - 1.5 2.3
Industrial output 1.7 -0.8 1.3 2.1 2.9 2.6 2.7 3.1
Retail trade 2.7 -10 -4.6 1.3 2.6 1.8 1.7 3.1
Inflation (EOP) 11.4 12.9 5.4 2.5 4.3 5.2 4.2 3.8
Real wages 1.3 -9.5 0.6 2.9 6.8 0.9 3.1 2.8
Current account, $ bn 59.5 69.6 25 35.2 114.9 22.3 105 85
Budget deficit, % of -0.4 -2.5 -3.4 -1.4 2.7 2 2.1 2.3 GDP
RUB/USD (avr) 38.4 61.1 67.1 58.3 62.7 66.6 62.9 63.3
RUB/USD (EOP) 56.2 72.9 60.7 57.6 69.5 65.9 61.7 64.2
Brent $ / bbl (avr) 99 52.4 43.6 54.3 70.8 60.3 75 78
CBR rate 17 11 10 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.5 6.75
Source: Rosstat, BCS GM
28 RUSSIA Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com