Page 38 - RusRPTJun19

2019, which would be a touch weaker than 2018’s outturn of 2.3%. Most analysts expect a more pronounced slowdown,” said Capital Economics in a note.
4.5.2 Income dynamics
Nominal incomes in Russia were up 6.9% in April, which is ahead of inflation of 5.3% in the same month so there was a small gain in real incomes, which slowed to 1.6% y/y in April versus 2.3% in March.
However, the all-important real disposable incomes – the money left after buying essentials and paying utility bills – fell again by 2.3% so consumers feel poorer than a month earlier. Real disposable incomes have been more or less flat all year after strong gains in the first half of 2018.
Real incomes in Russia will continue to fall in 2019 as the government lacks plans for monetary social support of citizens, a representative with the Accounts Chamber told TASS. In 2018, real incomes of Russians fell by 0.2% compared with 2017 and 8.3% compared with 2013, according to the Federal State Statistics Service. The Economic Development Ministry predicts the growth of real disposable income of the population by 1% in 2019.
"Real disposable income of the population in the first quarter of 2019 decreased by 2.3% in comparison with the first quarter of 2018. In order to fix a minimum growth (100.1%) for the whole year, real disposable income of the population must to grow in the second to fourth quarters at a rate of at least 1% per quarter. But, in order to reach the level of the forecast indicator taken into account in the calculations to Federal Law No. 459-FZ (101%), the quarterly growth should be higher than 2% per quarter," Rosstat said. "Taking into account the current trends and the fact that in 2019 no significant new monetary measures of social support of citizens are expected, there are risks of maintaining the dynamics of this indicator in a negative area," the agency’s source added.
Following several quarters of weakness, Russian wage growth will
38 RUSSIA Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com