Page 44 - RusRPTJun19

5.2 Balance of payments, current account
Russia trade dynamics $bn
Sep 2018
Oct 2018
Nov 2018
Dec 2018
Jan 2019
Feb 2019
Mar 2019
Apr 2019
Foreign trade turnover, billion US dollars
59.1
51.1
62.9
52.4
63.9
46.3
52.4
57.5
export of goods
37.4
30.6
41.3
33.6
41.4
29.8
34.0
36.5
import of goods
-21.6
-20.4
-21.6
-18.9
-22.5
-16.5
-18.4
-21
good trade balance
15.8
10.2
19.7
14.7
18.9
13.3
15.6
15.5
source: GKS
5.2.1 Import/export dynamics
In the first three months of 2019 Russia exported $460bn worth of goods and imported $222bn worth of goods. Of note is Russia is still running a $5.8bn trade surplus with Ukraine.
Russian customs reports that Russia’s goods exports, measured in dollar terms, rose a mere 1.4% y/y in the first quarter of this year versus a gain of 25% in the same period in 2018. The dollar value of goods imports fell by 2.4% (up 4% in 2018).
While ruble weakness has depressed Russian spending on imports, part of this poor picture of Russian import developments stems from the use of the dollar as a unit of measurement. Measured in euros, goods imports to Russia rose over 5%. About half of Russia’s imports comes from Europe.
The volume of exported crude oil increased by 7% y/y (compared to 3% growth in 2018), while the volume of oil products shipped fell by 7% (exports were virtually flat in 2018). Growth in natural gas exports stopped, but exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) continued to rise. The value of energy exports overall increased by 3.6%.
The government expects that Russia’s non-energy exports will reach $160bn in 2019, an increase of $9bn compared with 2018, First Deputy Prime Minister, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said at the meeting of the Presidential Council for Strategic Development and National Projects on Wednesday. "Non-energy exports are expected to increase by up to $9bn this year compared with last year, whereas the total amount will equal $160bn," he said. According to the minister, a program to support producers that implement corporate competitive enhancement programs has been launched as part of the National Project ‘International cooperation and export’. "The program opens access to concessional financing of export projects. Commercial rates for banks participating in that program are reduced by 4.5 percentage points, with over 1,500 potential participants of the program attracted," he noted. Moreover, a law on VAT refund for services exports similar to exports of goods has been adopted as part of the National Project. "That will reduce the burden for companies exporting services, including transport companies and IT firms," Siluanov stressed.
Russia’s non-CIS imports rose 3.4% on the month to $18.53bn in April,
the Federal Customs Service said on Wednesday citing preliminary data. In January–April, imports fell 0.8% on the year to $65.709bn. In 2018, imports
44 RUSSIA Country Report June 2019 www.intellinews.com