Page 61 - UKRRptSept19

Through August, the volume of Russian gas passing through Ukraine’s pipelines to the EU was up 2.3% to 60 billion cubic meters. For all of last year, 87 billion cubic meters passed through the lines. Gazprom says that after the inauguration in December of TurkStream and the opening next year of NordStream 2, Russia will no longer need Ukraine’s pipelines. These two pipelines have a combined capacity of 86.5 bcm.
Ukraine produces 12.2 bcm of natural gas in seven months.
Ukrgasvydobuvannya alone produced 8.9 bcm of gas. Ukraine saw a 37.5 percent rise in imports of natural gas January through July 2019 compared to the same period of 2018, by 2.01 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 7.59 bcm. Ukrainian gas stocks grew by 84.5% to over 16 bcm since April 5. The country's USFs were filled by 52.2% as of August 5, 2019.
Ukraine had stockpiled 17.2bcm of gas, 86% of its goal for the winter, as of August 19, Ukrtransgaz reported. These reserves are almost one quarter more than this time last year.
Ukraine’s natural gas consumption dropped by 12% during the first half of this year, compared to the same period in 2018. With consumption down to 16.4bn cubic meters, domestic production was up 3%, to 10.5bn cubic meters. Household consumption was down 18% in the first half as residents responded to higher prices and investment in winterizing homes had an impact. With Gazprom behind schedule on Nord Stream 2, analysts believe Russia will not cut off gas transit through Ukraine on Jan. 1, when the 10-year gas transit contract expires.
Ukraine pumped 2.3bcm into its underground gas storage facilities in July, the highest monthly figure in four years. At this rate, Naftogaz will reach by Oct. 1 its goal of 20bcm, enough to get through the winter heating season. If Russia stops sending gas through Ukraine on Jan. 1, when the contract expires, gas flows will have to be reversed, pumping gas from west to east. Last year, Ukraine cuts it natural gas imports by one quarter, thanks to conservation, a mild winter, and growing domestic production.
Ukraine’s pipelines carried 53.2bn cubic meters of gas from Russia to the EU and Moldova during the first seven months of this year, up 4.4% over the same period last year, reports Interfax-Ukraine, drawing on data from Uktransgaz, the state pipeline company. If current rates are maintained, Ukraine will carry 90bcm, slightly above last year’s level. Next month, at 3-way gas transit talks, the EU is expected to ask for a 10-year transit contract guaranteeing 60bcm flowing across Ukraine. Russia is expected to argue that it will not need Ukraine after 2021 because Nord Stream 2 will open next year with a capacity of 55bcm.
Preparing for a potential cutoff of Russian gas on Jan. 1, Ukraine is negotiating the supply of Qatari gas to Greece’s sole LNG landing terminal. This gas would get to Ukraine via Bulgaria and Romania, on the Trans-Balkan pipeline. Earlier this year, Qatargas delivered the first load of gas to Greece’s newly modernized and expanded terminal, Revithoussa, near Athens. “We are working to ensure that gas supplies to Ukraine from the southern direction via the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline could be made already from January,” says Sergiy Makogon, director of Ukrtransgaz. For safety reasons, Turkey does not allow LNG tankers to pass through the Bosporus, which cuts through the centre of Istanbul.
61 UKRAINE Country Report September 2019 www.intellinews.com