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remittances from abroad. Capital investment will continue to expand rapidly, which will also provide significant support to the economy, the NBU added.
On this score Ukraine will follow it neighbours to the were the countries of Central Europe have managed to shake off the effects of a notable economic slowdown in “old Europe” thanks to their strong domestic demand that held up growth, bne IntelliNews reported yesterday. Ukraine has already started re- orientating its economy from Russia to the west, but linking itself to these dynamic economies just across the boarder will help lift Ukraine.
But economic growth will be dampened by weak global economic activity and a decrease in gas transits to "European countries starting in 2020, due to the construction of bypassing gas pipelines," the statement reads.
Ukraine faces a potentially debilitating with Russia’s Gazprom this winter. Its gas transit contract expires that could mean the Russia stop transiting gas to their European clients via Ukraine in a move that would cost the country some $3bn a year, or 3% of GDP. Ukraine has been pumping gas into underground storage at record levels to prepared for its coming gas war, the national gas company Naftogaz told bne in an exclusive interview.
In March, the Ukrainian Economy Ministry revised downward its forecast for the growth of Ukraine's real GDP in 2019 to 2.8% y/y from 3% y/y. The ministry also forecasts 2020 growth of 3.8% y/y, and in 2021 of 4.1% y/y, according to local media.
The same month, Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman said that the Ukrainian government forecast economic growth of over 3% y/y in 2019.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has kept its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 unchanged at 2.7% y/y and 3% y/y respectively.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised downward its forecast for the growth of Ukraine's real GDP in 2019 to 2.8% y/y from 3% y/y. The multinational lender's also forecasts that the nation's economy to expand by 3% y/y in 2020.
The EBRD believes that large payments on public debt scheduled for 2019- 2020 pose a serious risk to the economic development of Ukraine. Therefore maintaining co-operation with creditors remains vital for the recovery of the country's economy.
2.2 New government ministers appointed
Ukraine’s newly elected parliament convened on Aug. 29 with its most noteworthy legislative accomplishment being the approval of a bill amending the Constitution to remove political immunity from members of parliament. The measure, which would take effect on Jan. 1, drew 363 votes in favor in the first reading. Parliament didn’t vote for any other constitutional amendments or the slew of legislation that had been promised in recent days, instead voting for 58 bills to be sent for committee review, as reported by its website.
In his address to parliament, President Zelensky called for the newly elected MPs “to shift into fifth gear” on the road to change, warning them he will
8 UKRAINE Country Report September 2019 www.intellinews.com