Page 11 - IRANRptJun18

Iran’s real GDP growth to fall 0.3pp in 2018 and 2019 from 2017’s 4.3% predicts IMF
Iran’s real GDP growth is forecast to edge down to 4.0% in both 2018 and 2019 after coming in at 4.3% in 2017, according to the latest edition of the World Economic Outlook issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on April 17.
Economic forecasting for Iran is presently very challenging given that the upcoming early May decision from Donald Trump as to whether to keep the US in the multilateral nuclear deal , and thus protect Iran from, or expose Iran to, major sanctions, will be decisive as regards a substantial amount of potential growth.
Iranian unemployment, the IMF outlook added, would remain almost unchanged over a three-year period, at 11.8% in 2017, 11.7% in 2018 and 11.6% in 2019.
Iran, a country of 80mn, can also expect an upturn in consumer price inflation, from 9.9% last year to 12.1% this year, though it is forecast to fall to 11.5% in 2019, the report said.
Looking at expectations for Iran’s current account balance as a percentage of GDP, the IMF assessed that it would be in surplus by 7.0% in 2018 and 6.3% in 2019, having been recorded at 4.3% last year.
11 IRAN Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com