Page 2 - bne_newspaper_July_26_2019

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July 26, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 2
Ukrainian Eurobonds, warrants rally after Zelenskiy party's landslide win
rally over nine days to 6.74 cents, Bloomberg reported on July 23.
The warrants were also helped by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increasing the GDP growth forecast, the news agency added.
The additional VRI payments will be triggered if GDP grows at more than 3% per year, and if nominal GDP exceeds $125bn (compared to approximately $85bn in 2015).
Payments under these conditions will not
start before January 2021 and will end in 2040. They will be made two years after the relevant thresholds have been crossed; for example, payments triggered by GDP data for 2019 will be made in 2021. Payments will be limited to a total of 1% of GDP in the reference year until 2015, when this ceiling will be lifted.
On July 19, the NBU revised its economic growth forecast for 2019 to 3% year-on-year compared with its April macroeconomic forecast of 2.5% y/y. The NBU also revised its 2020 economic growth forecast to 3.2% y/y from 2.9%. The revisions were attributed to "stronger domestic demand, more favorable terms of trade and expectations of
a larger harvest of grain crops".
Domestic demand will remain the main driver of economic growth over the coming years. Private consumption growth will decelerate, albeit re- maining high owing to an increase in real house- hold income – wages, pensions and remittances from abroad. Capital investment will continue to expand rapidly, which will also provide significant support to the economy, the NBU added.
Russian Market Data Value
1M YTD
Equity Indices
RTSI
1,408
5%
31.7
MOEX
2,823
3%
19.1
MSCI EM
1,049
3%
9.0%
S&P
2,993
4%
20.0%
NASDAQ
8,203
5%
25.0%
DAX
12,373
3%
17.0%
FTSE
7,531
2%
12.0%
Commodities
Price, $
1M YTD
Brent
66.7
7%
23%
WTI
60.4
13%
33%
Urals
74.2
-4%
65%
Gold
1,419
7%
11%
Silver
15.2
4%
-2%
Nickel
12,785
10%
21%
Copper
5,862
1%
-2%
Aluminum
1,811
5%
-3%
FOREX
Value
Russia sectors performance % YTD
1M YTD
EUR/RUB
71.03
-3%
-10%
Russia sectors performance % YTD
Oil & Gas Utilities Financials Consumers Telecoms
M&M RTS MOEX
34 33
31.7
22 24
14
19.1
0 10 20 30 40
26
Source: MOEX, BCS GM
source: MOEX, BCS GM
Sectors: % return YTD