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November 3, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 6
the offshore Shah Deniz II gas project comes online in 2019, allowing Baku to increase its gas exports to Ankara by 10bn cubic metres. However, the two countries are also working on expanding trade and investment in areas like manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and defence industries.
Azerbaijan is also a major investor in Georgia, where its commitments are part of the “non-stop growth” of the country’s foreign direct investment (FDI) in the post-Soviet space that topped
$2.4bn in 2016, according to a recent Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) report. Azerbaijan and Turkey ranked as the leading sources of FDI in Georgia, with $558mn and $203.5mn invested respectively, Geostat reported in August.
Meanwhile, Turkey consistently ranks as one of Georgia's top three investment and trade part- ners. Turkish companies and investors are par- ticularly active in hospitality, retail and real estate.
Changing times
The BTK railway fits very nicely with Turkey’s current geopolitical ambitions, which have shifted away from EU integration following the failed coup in 2016 and subsequent political clampdown. Since then “Ankara’s foreign policy has been rapidly shifting toward the East, including the Caucasus” wrote Shahbazov. The BTK railway also chimes with this ambition by providing a gateway to Central Asia.
While geopolitical push factors have ensured relations have remained strong, this has not been without some rocky moments.
A 2016 report published by Konrad-Adenauer- Stiftung claims that from the harmony of the 1990s, foreign policy policies started to diverge back in the early 2000s when Russia “began to flex her muscles” in the region, culminating in the Russian-Georgian war of 2008. There were also temporary hiccups during an attempt by Turkey and Armenia to normalise their troubled relations and when the political party Georgian Dream came to power in 2012, arousing speculation
that the country could shift towards Moscow with Bidzina Ivanishvilli, a billionaire with many investments in Russia, at the helm.
As, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung report notes, “the changing dynamics in regional affairs, and the potential for divergent perceptions of these developments, constitutes a key challenge.” Specifically, the report points to Russia’s role in the region, from the ups and downs of Moscow’s relationship with Ankara to the Russian annexa- tion of Crimea which altered the balance of power in the Black Sea region. The return of Iran from a pariah state to the current focus of intense inves- tor interest has also raised new questions.
But with the conflicts in Azerbaijan and Georgia remaining frozen, and no end in sight to the hos- tility between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the mo- tivation for the two post-Soviet states to engage with each other and Turkey remains as strong as ever. And despite a recent rapprochement with Russia, the relationship between Ankara and Moscow has been a tumultuous one, while the Middle East is as unstable as ever, so for Turkey there are still very solid benefits to its relationship with its near neighbours.