Page 19 - UKRRptMar21

GDP shrinking by 0.5% y/y in January-March, but then growing by 10.2% in April-June. The sharp rebound comes from a low base: in the second quarter of last year, strict coronavirus controls forced the economy to shrink by 11.4%. If the government does not impose more lockdowns, the analysts’ median forecast is 4% GDP growth for this year.
4.0​ Real Economy 4.1​ Industrial production
Ukraine’s industrial output dropped 4.0% y/y in January ​after increasing 4.8% y/y in December, the State Statistics Service reported February 25. The seasonally adjusted output declined 3.3% m/m in January.
Manufacturing output dropped 6.5% y/y in January (after a 1.8% y/y increase in December). In particular, the output in metallurgy dropped 3.9% y/y (after 4.3% y/y growth in December), the decline in machinery accelerated to 9.8% y/y (from 3.3% y/y in December) and in food production accelerated to 8.4% y/y (after a 1.7% y/y slide in December). At the same time, chemicals production jumped 10.0% y/y (after 3.6% y/y growth in December) and pharmaceuticals production surged 21.4% y/y (after 25.1% y/y growth in December).
Mining production declined 3.0% y/y after jumping 5.4% y/y in the prior month. In particular, iron ore production slid 0.3% y/y after surging 20.0% y/y in December. Coal production fell 4.5% y/y while oil and gas production dropped 4.8% y/y.
The supply of electricity & natural gas increased 3.2% y/y, slowing from 15.8% y/y growth in December.
Regionally, the steepest declines in December were observed in the Kirovohrad (-37.8% y/y), Kherson (-23.3% y/y) and Odesa (-19.1% y/y)
19​ UKRAINE Country Report​ March 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com