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is still weak, and month-to-month swings in demand for different import items are significant, which indicates that the demand for imported goods remains wobbly.
The further trend of export will largely depend on how long the favorable conditions for Ukraine’s metal exports last. The volume of imported goods will depend on the external prices of energy resources and the demand for imported machinery.
Concorde Capital expect the C/A surplus to decline to $0.6bn in 2021 (vs. a $6.5bn surpus in 2020) due to the swelling trade deficit.
5.2.3 Gross international reserves
As of 1 February 2021, Ukraine had an equivalent of $28.821bn in international reserves, preliminary data show.
In January, international reserves declined by 1.1%, primarily due to repayments on external and domestic public debt. At the same time, the NBU’s interventions in the FX market and FX inflows to the government partially made up for the impact that public debt-servicing expenditures had on international reserves.
Overall, international reserves in January were affected by the following factors:
● first, government transactions to manage public debt. In total, the government spent an equivalent of $311.4mn on the servicing and repayment of FX public debt. That includes the $197mn that went
31 UKRAINE Country Report March 2021 www.intellinews.com
