Page 47 - UKRRptMar21

8.4 ​International ratings
Ukraine - Rating agency
as of May 1, 2018
last change
Moodys (USD rating)
Caa1 (S)
21/12/18
Fitch (USD rating)
B- (S)
22/7/16
S&P
B- (S)
25/9/15
Fitch Ratings has affirmed long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating of Ukraine at B with a Stable Outlook, the agency reported Feb. 26. Among possible drivers for rating/outlook upgrade, Fitch listed increased international reserves (which it sees at 4.5 months of current external payments as of end-2022) on strengthened BoP, post-COVID fiscal consolidation that will decrease government debt (to about 54% of GDP in 2021-2022, guarantees excluded) and increased confidence about progress in reforms. Among possible negative factors for the rating, Fitch listed increase in macro instability due to delays in the IMF program and reforms reversals, increase of government debt due to longer period of fiscal loosening, as well as political/geopolitical shocks.
Fitch sees key Ukraine’s macro parameters being better than for B-rated peer median, like its GDP decline in 2020 (4.2% vs. peers 4.5%), fiscal deficit (5.5% of GDP vs. peers 7.7%) and debt/GDP ratio (55.6% net of guaranteed debt vs. peers 63.8%). The agency expects Ukraine’s GDP will improve to 4.1% real growth in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022. It sees the budget deficit to reach 5.1% of GDP in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022. It forecasts CPI reaching 6.9% YTD at the end of 2021 and 5.3% at the end of 2022. Fitch also expects Ukraine will get one IMF tranche for USD 0.7 bln and other official loans for USD 1.5 bln in 2021.
47​ UKRAINE Country Report​ March 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com