Page 12 - TURKRptJun21

It was in the first week of 2021 that Turkey’s daily cryptocurrency transaction volume surpassed $1bn, marking an increase from the $500-600mn seen in the last months of 2020.
As of May 16, BtcTurk was the second largest crypto exchange in Turkey with a daily transaction volume of about $700mn. Paribu was the leader with about $1bn.
3.0 Macro Economy
Main Macro Indicators
2018
Q1-19
Q2
Q3
Q4
2019
Q1-20
Q2
Q3
Q4
2020
Q1-20
Q2
GDP Growth (y/y)
2.8
-2.6
-1.7
1.0
6.4
0.9
4.5
-10.3
6.3
5.9
1.8
-
-
PowerConsumption(y/y,May23)
0.8
-1.5
0.4
-1.5
0.5
-0.6
3.3
-11.5
3.6
4.5
0.2
5.9
28
Employed (active, mn)
26.6
27.0
26.9
26.9
26.7
26.7
25.1
20.8
25.2
25.1
24.1
25.8
-
Population (mn)
82.0
-
-
-
-
83.2
-
-
-
-
83.6
-
-
GDP (per capita, $)
9,346
-
-
-
-
9,127
-
-
-
-
8,599
-
-
GDP (current, TRYbn)
3,724
925
1,028
1,158
1,208
4,320
1,074
1,036
1,414
1,525
5,048
-
-
GDP (current prices, $bn)
766
172
175
204
209
761
177
152
197
192
717
-
-
CPI (%, eop, Apr)
20.3
19.7
15.7
9.3
11.8
11.8
11.9
12.6
11.8
14.6
14.6
16.2
17.1
Lira-loans (%, y/y, May 12)
1.8
3.0
-0.5
4.0
13.9
13.9
19.1
39.4
46.4
44.1
44.1
34.8
21.9
Policy Rate (%)
24.1
25.5
23.9
16.3
11.4
11.4
9.3
7.6
11.1
17.0
17.0
19.0
19.0
CA Balance ($bn)
-28.3
-1.88
-1.29
5.92
-1.07
1.67
-8.79
-12.4
-8.70
-6.89
-36.7
-7.8
-
CA Balance/GDP (%)
-3.7
-1.1
-0.7
2.9
-0.5
0.2
-5.0
-8.1
-4.4
-3.6
-5.1
-
-
Budget (TRYbn, Apr)
-73
-36
-42
-7
-38
-124
-30
-80
-31
-32
-173
23
-17
Budget Balance/GDP (%)
-1.9
-3.9
-4.1
-0.6
-3.1
-2.9
-2.8
-7.7
-2.2
-2.1
-3.4
-
-
USD/TRY (eop, May 25)
5.29 5.56 5.79 5.65 5.95 5.95 6.61 6.85 7.72 7.44
7.44
8.24
8.48
TUIK may release an official GDP growth figure of 5.5-6% for Q1, a double-digit number for Q2 and a figure higher than 5% for 2021 as a whole, finance minister Lutfi Elvan said on May 6.
On May 28, he said that a 6% official growth release for Q1 was due.
For Q1, market polls suggest a band of 5% to 7.5% with a median of 6.7%. For
2020, 5.5% is the median of a band of 4.5% and 7%.
The IMF expects 6%. On condition that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan remains in power, the stakes in this public auction may rise higher towards March 2022 when the 2021 official GDP growth figure is due to be released.
The Q1 data would be released on May 31.
4.0 Real Economy 4.1 Industrial production
Turkey’s overall oil imports fell by 19% y/y to 2.44mn tonnes in February. Crude oil imports stood at 1.56mn tonnes, down 33% y/y.
12 TURKEY Country Report June 2021 www.intellinews.com