Page 5 - TURKRptJun21

1.0 Executive summary
Turkey is entering an era of violence. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened the opposition with describing a mob attack against Iyi Party leader Meral Aksener as “these are your good days.”
What we see in Turkey right now is the state clashing within itself again. Those who know Turkey are familiar with this kind of scenario. The most crystallised moment of this type in the present era was the failed coup attempt on July 15, 2016.
Sedat Peker, a mafia boss who is singing like a canary about the Erdogan regime on YouTube, has been triggering the current clashes.
As things stand, it is unclear how the gangs and cliques are grouped and who is attacking whom. The fighting and regrouping will now continue, but the fight will spread to ordinary people in the form of violence in society.
There is little to no foreign intervention in Turkey’s demise as yet, but when it inevitably and visibly arrives, everything will become messier. On June 14, Erdogan has an appointment to meet US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of a Nato gathering in Brussels.
Erdogan is tired, old, the squanderer of a lot of domestic and international ground. But he still has the army, the police, paramilitaries...
The opposition is demanding snap elections. On May 7, a senior official in Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), informed that opinion polls showing the AKP vote at below 30% do not reflect the truth. The Erdogan regime is too weak. The gangs within the regime are surfacing.
Turkey has more holes than Swiss cheese. However, the opposition got things right at the latest key elections, the local polls held in the spring of 2019 when the AKP lost Istanbul, Ankara and other major cities. No blood was spilled. But two years later, the stakes have become so much higher. Pray to the gods...
On May 7, the UK and France added Turkey to its travel red list. Turkey lost the UEFA Champions League Final and Formula 1 race on virus fears.
Turkey’s record breaker lira is back. Latest record on USD/TRY: 8.62 on May 28.
The balance of payments (BoP) remains under close scrutiny.
Pegasus Airlines sold $375mn 5-year eurobonds at 9.25% coupon. It is hard to fathom, but the company is slated to pay a total coupon of 46% if it cannot recall the paper in the third year.
Pegasus CEO Mehmet Nane reiterated that the coronavirus crisis-hit Turkish aviation industry roughly needs $2bn and noted that its borrowing costs were high due to Turkey’s high risk premium.
LimakPort sold $360mn worth of 15-year papers at a 9.50% coupon. Electricity producer Zorlu Yenilebilir (Zoryen), sold $350mn 5-years at 9.50%. Arcelik (ARCLK) sold €350mn 5-year eurobonds at 3% coupon. Anadolu Efes (AEFES) is on the way.
External debt rollovers have continued undeterred. The spring season for Turkish banks syndicated loan rollovers was concluded at an average renewal rate of slightly above 100%.
5 TURKEY Country Report June 2021 www.intellinews.com