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planning for Erdogan or Turkey and the wider region. While the White House wants to bring Erdogan as low as possible ahead of pushing him to do its bidding, Erdogan will nevertheless run rings around Biden and his team before digging his claws in when it comes to agreeing some “transactional” partnerships.
Given the June 14 appointment, April 24 will drop away like a non-event.
It would be possible now to write reams on who wants what, but it’s better to watch for tangible moves. At the end of the day, Erdogan is only focused on his own survival (in Turkey, a prison cell might well beckon very soon should he find himself out of office) and he will have trepidations about the upcoming Halkbank case.
Biden has so far dabbled in making the Kremlin feel some heat, but he is now meant to attend to his real task, which is China.
The genocide recognition will have no lasting political or economic impact.
● September 26: Elections in Germany. There is a possibility that Germany, Europe and the rest of the world might be waving goodbye to the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
● Corona: Tourism season opening in April failed. Hopes are now pinned on June.
● April 29: the central bank hiked its end-2021 inflation forecast to 12.2% from the previous 9.4%. Also, the upper limit on official inflation was moved up to 14.4%, closer to market expectations.
The new central bank governor Sahap Kavcioglu reiterated a few times that inflation would peak at around 17% in April before easing.
● June 3: Official inflation for May (April: 17.14%). The May inflation is supposed to bring a decline.
● June 17: Monetary policy committee meeting decision at 14h Istanbul time.
May 6: Hold at 19%.
The thinking is that at the June 17 rates meeting, the policy rate will again be held constant, with a cut set to follow at the July 14 meeting after the June inflation release on July 5 confirms a declining trend in price growth.
However, by then, Turkey is dealing with the impacts of another currency shock—will the government continue to insist that inflation is falling?
● Lira loans flow.
● USD/TRY: The dam is broken again.
8 TURKEY Country Report June 2021 www.intellinews.com