Page 8 - FSUOGM Week 12

FSUOGM PIPELINES & TRANSPORT FSUOGM
Russia to pipe 5.2mn bpd of oil overseas in Q2
RUSSIA
It is unclear whether the first-quarter estimates were recent or simply a preliminary plan.
RUSSIA plans to export 64.595mn tonnes (5.2mn barrels per day) via Transneft’s pipeline system in April-June, according to the pipeline operator’s schedule, seen by Reuters.
Russia has threatened to ramp up pro- duction by up to 300,000 bpd within 90 days amid a supply standoff with Saudi Arabia, but Transneft’s documents indicate a quar- ter-on-quarter growth of only 72,000 bpd, or 1.4%. This said, Reuters did not specify whether the estimates for first-quarter vol- umes were recent, or represented only Trans- neft’s preliminary plan.
Russian Urals oil exports from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga are due to reach 19.5mn tonnes (1.57mn bpd) in April-June, up from 1.49mn bpd in January-March. Meanwhile, Urals and Siberian Light shipments from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk are anticipated to be 8.22mn tonnes (662,000 bpd), versus 664,000 bpd in the previous period.
Supplies to Poland and Germany are slated to total 9.47mn tonnes (763,000 bpd), up from 760,000 bpd, while exports to the Czech Repub- lic, Slovakia and Hungary are seen falling to 2.83mn tonnes (228,000 bpd) from 286,000 bpd, according to the Transneft document.
Urals shipments to Belarus are predicted to total 5.87mn tonnes (472,800 bpd), versus 470,000 bpd in the previous three months. The
first-quarter figure would suggest that shipments to Belarus were at a normal level during Janu- ary-March, even though Russia is understood to have cut shipments drastically to its western neighbour at the start of the year because of a price dispute.
Meanwhile, Russia’s ESPO blend deliveries via the Far Eastern port of Kozmino are set at 8.9mn tonnes (717,000 bpd), compared with 636,000 bpd. The bulk of this oil is sold in the Asia-Pacific region. Russian oil sales to key buyer China reportedly slumped by 36% year on year in January, amid Beijing’s efforts to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Kazakhstan’s oil transit via Russian ports is predicted to be 4.1mn tonnes (330,000 bpd) in April-June, according to the Transneft doc- ument. This figure does not include volumes pumped to Novorossiysk via the Caspian Pipe- line Consortium (CPC), which is not part of Transneft’s system. Turkmen transit volumes are set at 48,000 bpd.
No transit of oil from Azerbaijan is antic- ipated in the second quarter, compared with 325,000 tonnes (26,200 bpd) in the previous three-month period.
Russia exports additional volumes of oil via marine terminals in the Arctic, including Varandey, which is operated by Lukoil, and Nov- oport, controlled by Gazprom Neft. ™
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Week 12 26•March•2020