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Eurasia
June 29, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 18
the likelihood of the measure being indicative of preparations for a political transition are gener- ally seen as low.
Nazarbayev rules out elevating one of three daughters to presidency
Nevertheless, the question of Nazarbayev’s suc- cessor still remains unanswered. The president has effectively ruled out his elder daughter, Dariga Nazarbayeva, as a potential successor, having said that his children will not succeed him. Before that, Nazarbayeva’s appointment to the senate in 2016 was widely seen as a move
to put her in line for the presidency. Under the Kazakh constitution, the senate’s chairman takes over the president’s responsibilities if the presi- dent passes away or leaves office early.
Nazarbayev’s daughter Dinara Kulibayeva shares control of the country’s largest bank by assets, Halyk Savings Bank, with her husband Timur Kulibayev, who himself has been seen as the po- tential next president. The president’s youngest daughter, Aliya Nazarbayeva, heads the Elitstroy construction company.
Tokayev’s BBC appearance came ahead of the country preparing for the IPOs of the seven largest state-owned companies. The planned flotations, along with the planned launch of the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) on July 5, are indicative of the country’s shift away from oil export-dependence towards a greater focus on foreign investment and economic diver- sification. Astana is in the midst of a PR offensive
to draw in foreign investment given that it hopes to sell 25% stakes in select state-run companies and draw in liquidity to jumpstart a functioning stock market in the country (the Almaty ex- change is not seen to have amounted to much).
The emergence of Mirziyoyev
A big factor in Central Asia right now is the emergence into the limelight of the late Kari- mov’s reform-minded successor, Uzbek Presi- dent Shavkat Mirziyoyev. It is possible that Mir- ziyoyev has started to hog the headlines a bit too much for Astana’s liking as he bids to open up Kazakhstan’s neighbour and draw foreign invest- ment to the 32mn-strong nation, Central Asia’s most populous (at 18mn, Kazakhstan’s popula- tion is significantly smaller, although thanks to its vast oil and gas reserves its GDP is at least twice as big). The Kazakhs might feel the need to keep up.
A sudden shift towards a more “democratic- looking” approach to governance could be in- terpreted as a way for Kazakhstan stay ahead of Uzbekistan’s reforms. Mirziyoyev’s liberalisation efforts, while being a big improvement on Kari- mov’s inward-looking policies, are so far only set to match the relative “openness” of Kazakhstan. Yet as both a regional partner and competitor with a significantly larger consumer market (a fact that will not change looking ahead espe- cially as some 34% of its population are under 14-years-old), Uzbekistan is potentially placing considerable pressure on Astana to improve.