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Opinion
June 29, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 22
has, in the main, been by way of fronting a multi- national company deemed an important strategic and economic asset to Moscow. The health of a business like Rusal – a source of work in towns across Russia, employing thousands – will be prioritised over Deripaska's position and wallet.
Washington should know this. Deripaska is a Yeltsin-era oligarch. That was a time when money and politics collided amongst the oligarchic class. When Putin came to power, he sought to curb that political influence, reducing their stake in political decision making. Deripaska has maintained a good relationship with the Kremlin – which is all but essential if you are to remain a member of the business elite in Russia – but he has stayed out of politics. He has never been a 'Putin crony'. That title should be reserved for certain individuals within the presidential administration, security services, as well as Putin-era 'oligarchs' such as Igor Sechin and Sergei Chemezov.
Where art thou strategy?
Much of this comes down to what you’d expect economic sanctions to do. In the policy-making world sanctions are intended not as indiscrimi- nate punishment but as a coercive tool to put economic pressure on an adversary in an effort to change behaviour. The reality has not always lived up to the theory. Sanctions have a mixed history of success. They have often proven to been ineffec- tive, despite their increased use since the 1990s. Still, where they have achieved political results they have been narrowly defined, with achievable aims and a clear relationship between the sanc- tions imposed and what needs to be done for them to be lifted. It is about carrots and sticks.
Sanctions have also shown themselves to be a powerful form of communication, particularly when rolled out by a broad coalition of countries. They can display unity, authority, and re-affirm values. The Iran sanctions, which helped create
a constructive environment for the Joint Compre- hensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – an agreement President Trump recently abandoned – are a good example of this.
Yet much of the above remains absent from April's sanctions. First, they were rolled out in response to what can only be described as a shopping list
of Russian bad behaviour, from the annexation
of Crimea to money laundering through to cyber attacks. These must be countered – but tacking them to the same sanctions sets unrealistic expectations, confuses broader policy goals, and leaves little room for incentives and dialogue. Their broadness may even help President Putin cynically reinforce his 'fortress Russia' narrative.
Unity amongst US allies is also lacking. Many European countries and companies were quick
to push back against the sanctions targeting Rusal due to worries about the impact on their own manufacturing and supply chains. Given the already escalating tensions over trade tariffs,
the transatlantic relationship could well deterio- rate further. There have been domestic tensions, too. US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, was scolded in April by the White House for suggesting Syria-related sanctions on Russia. In May, De- fence Secretary James Mattis asked Congress for a way around January's CAATSA law in an effort to avoid damaging relations with strategic partners like India. It is difficult to display convincing au- thority or direction with such divisions.
The potential role for economic sanctions should not be diminished by these criticisms. Sanctions can, and should, be a valuable part of a broad, imaginative, multi-layered approach toward Moscow. The gap between mere talk and military force is wide, yet has few tangible resources to take advantage of. Sanctions are certainly one. But their recent use by the US against Moscow suggests an administration that is not entirely clear about what it wants to achieve with them
– let alone how it would measure their success. Sanctions are not a shortcut, or a way to bypass tough policy decisions. They are a tactic, not a strategy. The US is in desperate need of the latter.
Lindsay Mackenzie is a writer and editor based in Scotland.