Page 36 - BNE_magazine_07_2020

36 I Central Europe bne July 2020
Number of confirmed coronavirus cases
day+n, log scale, Poland, Russia, Kazakhstan, Iran, Turkey in bold
exacerbate or reduce the negative effect of the economic crisis,” it pointed out.
“Countries in which young people
are now more prone to abandon their fertility plans are the ones where fertility was already very low (i.e. Italy and Spain), compared to the countries where fertility was much higher, and fertility plans today seem to be more protected. In the latter case, a higher proportion of people are still planning to have a child this year or they are postponing instead of abandoning their fertility plans.
This suggests that the same drivers of previous fertility trends may explain
the different impact of the pandemic on current intentions.”
The authors attribute part of the difference between countries to the experience of the Great Recession, as some in Italy and Spain are still suffering from the aftermath of the last crisis and their youth unemployment rates are among the highest in Europe.
Most of Central and Southeast Europe rebounded strongly from the crisis during the 2000s, and towards the end of the decade the Visegrad 4 states in particular were enjoying a consumption- led boom fuelled by rising wages in
a tightening labour market. Youth unemployment is, however, very high in the Western Balkans countries, which are economically far behind their peers to the north.
“Another factor is related to women
in the labour market,” say the report’s authors. “The countries in our sample that now suffer the greatest losses
in terms of fertility intentions are
also those with the lowest female employment rates in Europe, as well
as the lowest proportion of infants enrolled in childcare services. It is well- grounded in the literature that women’s employment is positively related to fertility. And the availability (and affordability) of childcare services is one of the drivers of the female presence in the labour market.”
They point out that in Italy and Spain working parents compensate for the lack of adequate public childcare services by
Employment rate and gender employment gap, 2018
Mean hourly earnings and gender pay gap, 2014
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