Page 65 - BNE_magazine_07_2020

bne July 2020
Opinion 65
Police arrest a man and his bike in Minsk on 19 June (nn.by)
The newly appointed Cabinet can rightly be called a National Rescue Government. It is the first time in Belarusian history when all key positions are being held by siloviki – people from the KGB and other security agencies whose main asset is loyalty and readiness to execute any order from Lukashenko. Announcing the changes, the President said: “Today is not the time to destroy. Nor is it the time to build. Today is the time to save what has been built”.
The economy has been switched into manual mode. All talks with the IMF, EBRD and other international financial institutions about possible loans in exchange for reforms are
“Before his arrest, Viktor Babariko had been breaking all popularity records. His people collected 425,000 signatures in support of his candidacy, which is an absolute record”
now cancelled. So are attempts to improve Belarus’ relations with the EU and the US. Paraphrasing Lukashenko, it is not the time to think of tomorrow, it is the time to survive.
An unprecedented crackdown has begun three months ahead of the election, before the actual race has even started (in previous years, crackdowns usually followed the election). Sergei Tsikhanovski was denied registration and soon afterwards arrested as the result of an obvious police provocation. He is now facing up to six years in prison. Lidia Yermoshina, the chairwoman of the Central Election Committee, accused him of no less than “trying to change the President through the signature collection” – which is
a preliminary part of the election campaign.
Viktor Babariko-linked Belgazprombank was raided by the financial police. Its entire top management was arrested. Babariko’s election campaign fund was seized. The authorities shut down Belarus’ largest crowdfunding platform, created
by Babariko’s son, which was a crucial instrument to helping abandoned medics during the COVID-19 crisis. Finally,
Babariko, along with his son and many of his family friends and business partners, has been arrested and put into the KGB detention centre.
Hundreds of activists all across the country have been kidnapped and arrested. The detainees have been denied the right to
see a lawyer. Their homes have been searched, their families threatened. Policemen broke the arm of one of the detainees’ mothers. There have been reports of policemen pointing their guns at children during searches. Wives of the detainees have been threatened with the seizure of their children. Those activists who have already been released are talking about unprecedented torture. One of the activists, leader of the Christian Democrats Pavel Severinets, while in custody tried to cut his wrists in protest against torture and inhumane conditions.
The same goes with businesses. Those who have dared to express their support for the opposition candidates are being shut down under various pretexts. One of the producers of national-themed souvenirs had to stop part of his company’s operations, as it “constituted a threat to national security”.
Before his arrest, Viktor Babariko had been breaking all popularity records. He had the most campaign members among all opposition candidates in Belarus’ history. His people collected 425,000 signatures in support of his candidacy, which is again an absolute record. The second-best ever was Zianon Pazniak in 1994 with 216,000.
Lukashenko is clearly afraid. Every day he attacks his opponents on TV, calling them thugs, pigs, lice and fat bourgeois. Realising that even falsifications might not be enough this time, Lukashenko has turned to terrorising his people. In a recent speech, he has warned Belarusians what happens when people do not obey their ruler by referring to the case of the 2005 Andijan Massacre, when representatives of the government
of Uzbekistan opened fire into crowds of civilians.
All this has happened in just the few weeks after the election date was announced. In the remaining two months, we will undoubtedly see even more violence: more arrests, threats and provocations. There is a chance that for the first time in history, no real opposition candidate will be allowed to run. The Election Commission has until 14 July to make the decision. But no matter whether all the candidates are arrested now or right after the rigged election; the level of discontent is so high that protests on 9 August, election day, are almost unavoidable. Moreover, judging by the unprecedented number of people who came out on the streets even in the smallest provincial towns to support Tsikhanovski after his arrest, it is likely that for the first time in the history of Belarusian elections, protests will take place not only in Minsk but also in other cities and towns.
Lukashenko is trying to work proactively, but he must also bear in mind the potential protests. For the first time in 26 years, he has significantly reinforced the security of his main Minsk residence.
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