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March 2, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 10
Western Balkans to take up to 180 years to catch up with the EU
Clare Nuttall in Bucharest
It could take the Western Balkans six (WB6) countries almost two centuries to achieve full convergence with average EU living standards, a new report from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) finds.
Looking at average growth rates since the global financial crisis, it would take until 2200 for the six aspiring EU members to catch up with the bloc, where current average GDP even in the
11 CEE member states is twice as high as in the Balkans, while in the most advanced West European economies it is four times as high.
Even the most optimistic scenario outlined
in the report (based on the faster pre-crisis growth rates) has the six aspiring EU members achieving convergence no sooner than 2053, while the baseline scenario – based on the average growth rates for 2001-2016 – forecasts the region will converge by 2078.
Whether it takes decades or centuries for the six countries — Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia — to fully converge with average EU living standards will depend on how fast governments address the challenges that hamper the region from developing its full potential, the EBRD report says. “Full convergence will require a major and sustained boost to productivity and investment, but the conditions for such a boost are not yet in place.”
EBRD economists identify low productivity
as the fundamental problem holding back economic development in the Western Balkans. “This reflects years of under-investment,
weak institutions and a difficult business environment,” says the report, which brings together a broad range of research from the EBRD and other international institutions.
Convergence scenarios