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February 22, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 10
Growth accelerates in Poland’s resilient industrial sector
Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw
Polish industrial production growth expanded to an unadjusted 6.1% y/y in January, data from statistical office GUS showed on February 20.
The headline figure marks a clear and surprising pick-up against unadjusted growth of just 2.8% y/y in December. That proves the Polish industrial sector’s resilience to the weakening external environment, even if that is possibly only a temporary phenomenon, according to analysts.
In adjusted terms, industrial production also accelerated, growing 6.1% y/y, 3pp above the adjusted annual expansion in December.
The rebound in industrial activity in January is also at odds with the weakening PMI, which was at its lowest in over five years in January.
“Despite better than expected data for January, there is a downward trend in industrial output dynamics, when calculated as a rolling three- month average, which confirms that the slowdown in global trade does affect domestic producers,” according to Bank Millennium. That said, the negative impact is expected to be insignificant due to “flexibility of Polish manu- facturing companies, their price competitiveness
and the Polish zloty’s favourable exchange rate,” the bank added. Strong domestic demands will also play a supportive role.
“Taking into account the solid dynamic of the corporate employment in January, one must admit that it actually looks like a pretty good start of the Polish economy in 2019,” said Commerzbank.
Poland’s GDP economy expanded 5.1% in 2018 and adjusted 4.6% y/y in the fourth quarter (4.9% y/y unadjusted).
Broken down by sector, output in manufacturing grew an unadjusted 5.3% y/y in January, com- pared to 2.1% y/y in December. In the utility segment, production grew 15.1% y/y after expanding 13.4% y/y the preceding month.
In the water supply segment, growth came in
at 7.2% y/y in the first month, compared to 5.1% y/y in December. Production grew 0.8% y/y in mining and quarrying in January, in contrast to a fall of 8.9% y/y in the preceding month.
In monthly unadjusted terms, industrial production expanded 7.4% in January while also expanding 1.7% m/m upon adjustment.
Poland Industrial Production (y/y) vs. PMI manufacturing