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Opinion
February 22, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 22
Putin then followed up with promises for help to alleviate poverty and give more help to those that lose their jobs or are unemployed. There is also going to be more mortgage relief and payment holidays. Pensions will be increased to above the minimum wage and healthcare will be improved across the country. As part of this, doctors, and public servants in general, will all receive a pay increase after pay has been frozen for several years. As over half the population is either directly or indirectly on the state’s payroll, an across the board pay rise for public sector workers will put money in the pockets of the whole country.
Interestingly Putin didn't focus per se on the RUB25.7 trillion ($390bn) investments planned for the 12 national projects that are part of the May Decrees announced last year, but standing
behind all the latest announcements are the programmes. The problem is that the earliest that these programmes are expected to have a visible effect on people’s lives (if at all) will be 2020. Putin did point out that GDP growth is expected to rise to 3% by 2020 following the controversial 2.3% growth in 2018 and the 1.3-1.8% that is forecast for this year.
The man with a plan
However, while Putin didn't highlight the programmes, partly as they remain theoretical at the moment, the themes of the programmes stood behind many of his comments such
as regional rejuvenation from social and infrastructural spending.
Last year Putin’s speech unveiled a very ambitious reform plan. The president wants productivity growth to accelerate to 5% per year (since 2009, the average growth has been only 1%) during the next decade, the share of SMEs in GDP to go up to 40% (from the current level of 20%), the number of people employed in SMEs to go up from 19mn to 25mn people, and to halve the number of people living below the poverty line (currently 13.8% of the population or 20mn people).
Russia watchers remain sceptical that Putin can
meet all of these goals, or indeed any of them. Even the 3% GDP growth by 2020 is seen as very ambitious.
But the whole theme of the speech represents
a change in the Kremlin’s thinking. The annual Munich Security Conference was last week, a talk-fest that is wall-to-wall VIPs. Putin didn't go this year, but gave a famous speech in 2007 at the same event that kicked off the current showdown with the west. At Munich Putin warned the west that if it didn't meet Russia half way and respect its national interests then Russia would respond. In 2012 Russia started rearming and Putin sacrificed Russia’s prosperity as he invested every spare kopeck into the modernisation of
the army. That led to the clash over Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, followed by Russia’s intervention in Syria.
Clearly Putin feels that the modernisation of the army is largely completed and is in a state to face down (if not actually beat) Nato’s forces. So the time has come to switch back to the domestic agenda, which Putin did in the most comprehensive way in any of his speeches for many years.
And Putin has to. Trust in Putin has plunged to 39% from 59% in 2017, although his personal approval rating remains at 64%. The propensity
to protest has risen dramatically in the last
year, while the number of Russians that think
the country is going in the wrong direction are currently in the majority for the first time in years. And the patriotic pride wave that followed the annexation of the Crimea has worn off. There
is no danger of a so-called coloured revolution
in Russia, but the Kremlin is keenly aware that
it needs to head off unrest by addressing the population’s concerns, and Putin’s speech was an extensive peace offering on this score.
INF treaty woes
The speech was primarily aimed at the gallery, but as this is a closely watched event that carries gravitas as a constitutionally mandated