Page 15 - IRANRptAug19

4.2 Inflation 4.2.1 CPI dynamics
Iran CPI inflation at 48% in fourth Persian calendar month
Iran’s official consumer price index (CPI) inflation reached 40.4% in the 2019/2020 Persian calendar year’s fourth month (ended July 21) after rising 2.8% m/m, according to Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) data.
The SCI also gave a latest point-to-point inflation reading of 48% y/y.
Iran is facing a perfect storm generated by a severe currency depreciation amid tightening sanctions levied by the US and stagnating wages. Many Iranians have cut down to essential purchases only, but prices have nevertheless continued to jump across the country. Rural areas are more heavily affected than urban localities.
Rural areas saw a CPI rate of 54.3% y/y in the fourth Persian month, compared with 46.9% y/y for urban areas.
For Iran as a whole, the price of meat rose 95% y/y.
Some international economists put Iran’s inflation rate a good deal higher than what is portrayed by the country’s official statisticians.
Iran’s economy is expected to shrink for a second consecutive year in 2019 while CPI inflation could hit 50% for the year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in late April.
4.2.2 PPI dynamics
Iran’s PPI up 53.9% y/y in 10th month of Persian year
The SCI announced that its analyses showed that the current PPI rate in the country stood at 53.9% in the 10th Persian calendar month. That indicates that Iran is entering hyperinflation territory.
This is in comparison to just an increase of 15.2% y/y in the fifth month of the 2018/2019 Persian calendar year (ended August 22).
15 IRAN Country Report August 2019 www.intellinews.com