Page 120 - RusRPTDec21

9.1.5 Retail sector news
9.1.6 Agriculture sector news
Russian Agriculture wheat exports to decline 25% y/y to 12mnt in July-October due to main headwind from declining harvest.
For the first 4 months of the MY22 (1 July - 28 October), wheat exports from Russia reached 12mnt (-25% y/y).
Such trends are primarily due to the overall grain harvest decline in Russia (-9% y/y, 121.7mnt), while the wheat harvest is to correct 12% y/y (to 75.6mnt).
IKAR estimates grain and wheat exports will contract 17% y/y (41.5mnt) and 18% y/y (32mnt), respectively, on the back of regulatory export limitations, a smaller harvest, and farmers preferring to stock up.
Regarding the regulatory regime, we note the floating export tariff, which currently stands at $67/t, or 20% of the export price (Wheat, 27 October-9 November) and the potential introduction of a separate quota for wheat exports (from 15 February 2022), apart from the general grain export quotas imposed in the last two seasons (17.5mnt in February-June 2021).
120 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com