Page 130 - RusRPTDec21

approved by all the ministries and includes the base (intensive) case scenario of carbon neutrality by 2060 (and reducing CO2e by 1,573bnt by 2050) vs. the inertial scenario, which implied no distinctive activities for GHG emission reduction and thus would imply Russia being unable to deliver on its climate goals (suggesting only a 0.46bnt CO2e reduction). The base scenario would lead to a 6x reduction of the carbon intensity of the economy vs. a 1.5x reduction in the inertial scenario. The strategy envisions the reduction of coalfired generation by 2050 to 4-5% of the production mix, while the price for CO2 on a national level would be assessed after the results of the Sakhalin experiment. Our View: The low carbon strategy is one of the core climate pack documents with distinctive targets and means of achieving them for every sector of economy. Though there were a number of drafts of the strategy, the final one includes the carbon neutrality target as announced on 13 October by the President of Russia. The document is due to be finally approved by the end of the year, while adaptation plans for sectors and regions are under development.
The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is taking place in Glasgow from October 31 to November 12. It was announced that President Putin would not be attending the summit in person, and the option of speaking via video was not provided according to Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov. Already, Russia joined over 100 countries in the first major agreement of the summit: a pledge to end deforestation by 2030.
Russia has more than 3 million square miles of forest, making it the most heavily forested country in the world, and its plan to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 relies heavily on absorption by its vast forests.
However, Russia is not among the 90 signatories for the pledge to cut methane emissions, likely because its economy relies heavily on oil and gas production.
Ruslan Edelgeriev, the Special Presidential Representative at COP26, said that Russia’s position is that each country should fight climate change in its own way, because there is no single solution.
Ahead of the summit, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov outlined Russia’s three main goals for discussion: technological neutrality (the recognition of all sources of electricity), international acknowledgment of Russia’s forests’ absorptive capacity, and mutual recognition of carbon credits. Russia is also expected to seek relief from sanctions for its state-sponsored gas company, Gazprom.
9.1.11 Metallurgy & mining sector news
130 RUSSIA Country Report December 2021 www.intellinews.com
Fertilizer prices have grown at an unprecedented rate in 2021: some of them have almost tripled YTD to reach 12-13 year highs. While the sustainability of such prices is not open to question (they are not), we must still ask when they will peak and at what level? Having analysed market fundamentals, the contribution of inputs to price growth, and affordability, we believe that N might peak in March 2022, P between now and the end of 1Q22,